Friday, June 29, 2018

BBC News - Surprise upgrade to UK growth

Construction siteImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES
The UK's economic growth has been revised up for the first quarter of the year after construction data was found to be stronger than earlier estimates.
Growth for the three months to March was 0.2%, the Office for National Statistics said, a surprise upgrade from the earlier estimate of 0.1%.
The pound jumped as speculation grew about the possibility of an interest rate rise later this year.
Against the dollar, sterling was up 0.8% at $1.3181 in afternoon trade.
Rob Kent-Smith of the ONS said: "GDP growth was revised up slightly in the first three months of 2018, with later construction data, and significantly improved methods for measuring the sector, nudging up growth."
Separate data from the ONS showed that the key services sector - which accounts for about 80% of the UK's economy - grew by 0.3% in April, the fastest monthly rate since last November.

'Cautiously upbeat'

Last week, the Bank of England kept UK interest rates on hold at 0.5% but signalled that an August rate rise was more likely than previously thought.
At the meeting, the Bank's chief economist, Andrew Haldane, joined two other Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members in voting to raise rates to 0.75%.
Following the latest growth figures from the ONS, Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics said: "We remain cautiously upbeat about the economy's near-term prospects and continue to think that the MPC will press ahead and raise interest rates at its next meeting on 2 August."
However, economists also noted that the figures contained some worrying signs. Household spending increased by a modest 0.2% over the quarter, and the household savings ratio fell from 4.5% to 4.1% - the third-lowest quarterly ratio since records began in 1963.
The savings ratio for 2017 as whole was 4.1% - a record low.
In addition, business investment shrank by 0.4% - worse than the previous estimate of a 0.2% contraction.
UK economic growth
John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, said: "We expect UK GDP growth to pick up slightly to 0.3-0.4% in the second quarter of 2018 and to average around 1.3% in 2018 as a whole."
Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said he expected the economy to expand by 0.3% in the second quarter, with the Bank of England waiting until early next year to raise rates again.
Official figures showed that the UK's current account deficit narrowed to £17.7bn in the first three months of the year, down from a deficit of £19.5bn in the final quarter of 2017.
However, the ONS also revised down its estimate for economic growth during 2017. It now says the economy grew by 1.7% last year, the weakest rate since 2012 and down from an earlier estimate of 1.8%.
Presentational grey line
MoneyImage copyrightPA

Analysis

Andy Verity, BBC economics correspondent
The government borrows money to top up its spending. Cue years of austerity. Households borrow more to top up their spending. Cue the sound of no-one falling off their chairs. Why have we spent nearly a decade fussing about the former - and ignoring the latter?
After all, if you want to know what affects you more directly - the government's deficit, or your own - there's no argument. Remember that pre-2015 election idea - everyone should have a pay rise? Well if you're average, you didn't get one until very recently.
Official figures released today show real household disposable incomes fell in both 2016 and 2017 - despite tax cuts such as higher personal allowances. And because he was outspending his income, Joe Public had to borrow more to make up the difference. As a proportion of income the amount saved was at its lowest on record in 2017 at 4.1%.
The official statisticians now think we households had to borrow more to top up our spending than previously guessed - about £5.8bn between us in the first quarter of the year.
More austerity for households isn't exactly an appealing message. But there is another way. Now, about that pay rise…

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Reuters News - Global trade tensions hit Asian currencies as bears take position - Reuters poll

(Reuters) - Investors raised their short positions in Asian currencies over the past month, a Reuters poll showed, with bets on the Chinese yuan turning bearish for the first time in over a year as Sino-U.S. trade tensions intensified.
An atmosphere of uncertainty has kept investors on the defensive and in search of safe-heaven assets, as the fallout of the U.S. administration’s ‘America First’ agenda spreads to other major economies.
Consequently, demand for the Japanese yen has firmed, while U.S. debt yields have edged higher, underpinned by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upward path for its benchmark interest rate, with a further two hikes likely this year.
This has kept the dollar supported against a basket of six major currencies. The greenback is set for a third consecutive month of gain.
With trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies escalating, short bets on the yuan are at their highest since November 2016, the poll of 10 respondents showed.
The Chinese currency weakened beyond a psychologically key 6.6 per dollar level for the first time in six months on Wednesday. The yuan has lost over 3 percent against the dollar this month alone, an unusually sharp move for the closely-monitored currency.
Expectations have grown that Beijing will allow the yuan to weaken further to soften the impact of trade tariffs imposed by the United States. [FRX/]
If the trade tensions were to have an impact on Chinese economic growth in the second half, that is going to have a spill over effect on growth in the region, said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research for ANZ.
“Because countries like South Korea and Taiwan do export quite a high portion of their overall exports to China, as part of goods for China to re-export.”
From Mumbai to Jakarta to Manila, many regional central banks have tightened liquidity by raising rates in order to shore up their respective currencies, stem capital flight and tackle inflation.
At the forefront has been Bank Indonesia, which raised rates twice in May and, according to another Reuters poll, is likely to hike rates for a third time in six weeks on Friday.
Bearish bets on the fragile rupiah surged to their highest since October 2015.
Earlier in the week, Southeast Asia’s largest economy said its trade deficit narrowed to $1.52 billion in May, but was worse than expected, due to higher oil prices.
Stubbornly high oil prices have added to current deficit woes among net-importers of the commodity, with India being one of them. The United States has told countries to cut imports of Iranian oil from November, adding further upward pressure on prices as India is one of Iran’s top customers.
Investors increased their bearish bets slightly on the Indian rupee, despite the central bank raising rates in June for the first time in four years.
The rupee has been the region’s worst performing currency, weakening over 7 percent so far this year.
The Philippine peso comes in a close second as the region’s worst performer, prompting the country’s central bank to raise interest rates for the second time in six weeks with short positions on the peso at their highest since October 2008.

“The recent emerging market rate hikes are indicative of a sudden rise in the emerging market risk premium, with investors now demanding a higher return to compensate for perceptions of increased risks,” Mizuho Bank said in a note on Tuesday.
The risk premium is correlated to global trade growth which is under profound pressure from U.S. trade policies, Mizuho said.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: The Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DDMM CNY KRW SGD IDR TWD INR MYR PHP THB
28/6 1.28 1.03 0.94 1.32 1.03 1.43 0.94 1.58 0.73
31/5 -0.15 -0.17 0.39 1.06 0.33 1.42 0.69 1.25 0.06
17/5 -0.28 -0.33 0.28 1.08 0.07 1.31 0.21 0.68 -0.14
3/5 -0.23 -0.38 -0.08 0.56 0.04 1.11 -0.24 0.47 -0.4
19/4 -0.52 -0.21 -0.44 0.14 -0.28 0.49 -0.19 0.74 -0.36
5/4 -0.65 -0.90 -0.50 0.10 -0.66 -0.05 -0.40 0.73 -0.60
22/3 -0.61 -0.48 -0.36 0.52 -0.59 0.41 -0.29 1.13 -0.72
8/3 -0.61 -0.64 -0.61 0.24 -0.54 0.19 -0.70 1.05 -0.99
22/2 -0.61 -0.32 -0.47 0.04 -0.92 0.04 -0.6 1.21 -1.02
8/2 -1.25 -0.34 -0.77 -0.1 -0.88 -0.22 -1.02 0.99 -1.1
25/1 -1.4 -0.81 -1.45 -0.79 -1.44 -0.71 -1.57 0.51 -1.48
Reporting by Nikhil Kurian Nainan; additional reporting by Aaron Saldanha in Bengaluru; Editing by Gopakumar Warrier

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

BBC News - Most expensive city for expats revealed

Hong Kong is back in top spot as the most expensive city to live in the world as an expat, according to research.
Apartment block in Hong KongImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionHong Kong has some of the most crowded housing on the planet
The city of skyscrapers had dropped to second place last year behind Luanda, the capital of Angola.
But it now heads the Asia-dominated list again, according to the 24th annual cost of living survey carried out by advisory firm Mercer.
The survey covers costs ranging from housing and clothes to bread and beer.
It examines the cost of 200 items in each location, including accommodation, transport, clothes, food and entertainment, comparing prices such as a cinema ticket, a pair of jeans, a litre of water, a cup of coffee, a litre of petrol and a litre of milk.
Mercer defines expatriates, also called assignees, as employees of an organisation who are assigned to work in a different country than her or his original country of employment for a definite period of time.
In this year's rankings, Tokyo is the second most expensive city followed by Zurich and Singapore, with Seoul in fifth. This means that four out of five of the world's most expensive cities for expatriates are now in Asia, according to the survey.
The top 10 is completed, in order, by Luanda, Shanghai, N'Djamena, Beijing and Bern.
The world's least expensive city for expats is Tashkent, sitting in 209th place in the Mercer list, below Tunis and Bishkek.
Hong Kong is back in top spot as the most expensive city to live in the world as an expat, according to research.
The city of skyscrapers had dropped to second place last year behind Luanda, the capital of Angola.
But it now heads the Asia-dominated list again, according to the 24th annual cost of living survey carried out by advisory firm Mercer.
The survey covers costs ranging from housing and clothes to bread and beer.
It examines the cost of 200 items in each location, including accommodation, transport, clothes, food and entertainment, comparing prices such as a cinema ticket, a pair of jeans, a litre of water, a cup of coffee, a litre of petrol and a litre of milk.
Mercer defines expatriates, also called assignees, as employees of an organisation who are assigned to work in a different country than her or his original country of employment for a definite period of time.
In this year's rankings, Tokyo is the second most expensive city followed by Zurich and Singapore, with Seoul in fifth. This means that four out of five of the world's most expensive cities for expatriates are now in Asia, according to the survey.
The top 10 is completed, in order, by Luanda, Shanghai, N'Djamena, Beijing and Bern.
The world's least expensive city for expats is Tashkent, sitting in 209th place in the Mercer list, below Tunis and Bishkek.

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Bloomberg News - China Begins to Question Whether It’s Ready for a Trade War

Xi Jinping vowed to match Donald Trump blow for blow in any trade war. Now as one gets closer, some in Beijing are starting to openly wonder whether China is ready for the fight -- an unusually direct challenge to the leadership of the world’s second-largest economy.
In recent weeks, prominent academics have begun to question if China’s slowing, trade-dependent economy can withstand a sustained attack from Trump, which has already started to weigh on stock prices. The sentiments are being expressed in carefully worded essays circulated on China’s heavily censored internet and -- according to interviews in recent days with ministry officials and foreign diplomats who asked not to be identified -- repeated in the halls of government offices, too.
The essays have raised concerns that the ruling Communist Party underestimated the depth of anti-China sentiment in Washington and risked a premature showdown with the world’s sole superpower. Such views push the bounds of acceptable public debate in a nation where dissent can lead to censure or even jail time, and are particularly bold given Xi has amassed unrivaled control while leading China to a more assertive role on the world stage.
“It seems like Chinese officials were mentally unprepared for the approaching trade friction or trade war,” Gao Shanwen, chief economist for Beijing-based Essence Securities Co., whose biggest shareholders include large state-owned enterprises, wrote in one widely circulated commentary. “Anti-China views are becoming the consensus among the U.S. public and its ruling party.”

Private Doubts

Gao’s article -- first published May 10 on his WeChat social media account after a trip to Washington -- has amassed millions of hits across multiple platforms. He couldn’t be reached for comment.
The essays have been noticed by key officials. Gao’s piece was circulated last week among bureaucrats at the Commerce Ministry, which has been on the front lines of the trade dispute, said one agency official, who asked not to be named because the discussions were private.
Other officials expressed skepticism about the senior leadership’s strategy in discussions with Bloomberg News last week. One Finance Ministry official said the country had made a “major misjudgment” of the U.S.’s commitment to a long-term confrontation with China.
China’s Finance Ministry and Commerce Ministry didn’t respond to faxed questions about the sentiments expressed in the essays.

Escalation Risk

In official statements, China has remained defiant since Trump’s decision earlier this month to levy tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports and push ahead with additional restrictions on foreign investment. China vowed to retaliate immediately and “forcefully,” prompting even more threats from Trump that have brought the world’s two largest economies to the brink of a trade war.
The risk is that the two sides, having misjudged each other’s intentions, find themselves in an escalating series of attacks and counterattacks. Xi, like Trump, is a nationalistic leader who has emphasized his strength and decisiveness and can’t afford to look weak in a confrontation with China’s biggest rival.
There are signs that both sides may be posturing. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 400 points on Monday, White House Trade adviser Peter Navarro sought to ease investor concerns that a Treasury Department report later this week on foreign investment restrictions would stifle economic growth.
Chinese stocks continued to sell off Tuesday, with Shanghai-traded shares headed for bear market territory. The yuan also extended declines, while U.S. index futures edged up 0.2 percent following Monday’s losses in New York.
Even so, the rhetoric is intense on both sides. Last week, Xi told a group of mostly American and European multinational CEOs that China planned to strike back at U.S. trade measures, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people briefed on the remarks. In public comments at the event, Xi issued a veiled rebuke of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for calling the country’s pledges of economic reform “a joke.”

Hide, Bide

Xi has a lot at stake personally. He cast aside former leader Deng Xiaoping’s maxim to “hide” China’s strength and “bide” its time, and last year outlined a vision to complete China’s rise as a global power by 2050. That included building a “world-class” military and boosting clout through his Belt-and-Road Initiative to finance infrastructure from Asia to Europe and beyond. Presidential term limits were also removed, allowing him to rule indefinitely.
Yu Zhi, an economic professor from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, questioned the wisdom of a more assertive foreign policy in a recent article published in Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao newspaper. He confirmed the comments when reached by phone.
“Has China completed the task of ‘getting rich’? Has China completed the primary stage of socialism as Deng Xiaoping described? Can you begin to compete directly with the United States and other Western countries?” Yu wrote. “China should rethink its general strategic direction.”

Failed Talks

China’s attempts to settle the dispute by promising to buy tens of billions of dollars of U.S. energy and agriculture products have so far ended in frustration. Xi’s chief economic aide, Liu He, returned from Washington and declared the trade war over last month, only to see Trump escalate tensions again shortly afterward.
To the U.S., the problem is more than just deficits. The White House last week issued a scathing 36-page report accusing China of “economic aggression,” following on from the Pentagon’s decision earlier this year to brand the country a “strategic competitor.”
The U.S. decision to penalize telecommunications equipment-maker ZTE Corp. -- ostensibly for violating Iran nuclear sanctions -- complements a broader Trump administration effort to roll back Xi’s ambitious program to dominate several strategic industries. A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has subsequently advanced legislation to block an agreement to spare the company has fed fears that the fight over the U.S. trade deficit is headed to an all-out struggle for dominance.

‘Geopolitical War’

“If mismanaged and the China-U.S. trade war is fully upgraded, it could expand into a financial war, an economic war, a resource war, and a geopolitical war,” Ren Zeping, chief economist at China Evergrande Group, wrote in one popular commentary published on June 5.
“The U.S. will use its hegemonic system established since World War II from trade, finance, currency, military and et cetera, to stop the rise of China,” said Ren, a high-profile economist who made headlines last year for earning a hefty paycheck.
The dispute threatens Xi’s attempt to guide China into an era of slower growth without a recession that could loosen the Communist Party’s 69-year grip on power. The country’s industrial output, retail sales and investment all fell below forecasts last month and economists predict that the trade conflict could cut as much as half a percentage point from annual economic growth.
Chinese stocks have fallen recently, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down about 20 percent from its peak in January. The slide has fueled warnings about a repeat of the market’s collapse in 2015, the last time China saw such open criticism of economic policymakers.
“People are going to look back at this year as the pivot point when Xi Jinping overreached and sparked an international backlash against the party and China’s development model on multiple fronts,” said Jude Blanchette, China practice lead at Crumpton Group in Arlington, Virginia, and a former Conference Board researcher in Beijing. “There can’t be a domestic backlash because most of what they spend their time doing is thinking about how to stop that.”
— With assistance by Peter Martin, Keith Zhai, Dandan Li, and Miao Han
(Updates with Trump trade adviser’s comments. An earlier version corrected the job title of Ren Zeping.)

Monday, June 25, 2018

BBC News - US banks pass financial stress tests

US Federal ReserveImage copyrightANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/GETTY
Image captionThe Federal Reserve's stress tests are designed to monitor banks' financial strength
The 35 largest banks operating in the US have enough money on hand to withstand a severe financial crisis despite rising levels of credit card debt.
That was the finding of the annual "stress tests" conducted by the US central bank, the Federal Reserve.
The US introduced the tests after the financial crisis to monitor financial strength in the event of a downturn.
The firms reviewed account for about 80% of all bank assets in the US.
The tests are intended to evaluate whether banks have enough of a financial cushion to handle a global recession.

'Hypothetical recession'

Under the central bank's stress scenario the unemployment rate would rise to 10% and stock prices and property prices would plunge.
The Federal Reserve calculated this would lead to roughly $578bn (£436bn) in total losses at the banks, but said their holdings of "high quality capital" would remain above the minimum required.
The ratio of high quality capital to risky assets would fall to as low as 7.9% in the hypothetical recession, compared with the 4.5% minimum requirement, it said.
Last year, the cushion was slightly higher at 9.2%.
The Federal Reserve said the performance in this year's tests, the eighth since 2009, reflected changes in the US tax law, as well as higher levels of credit card debt.
The central bank also said it had also measured the banks against a more severe hypothetical downturn than last year.
The banks subject to review included firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, as well as US divisions of foreign companies, such as Barclays and Deutsche Bank.
Goldman Sachs, which was among the worst performers, said its internal evaluation model differs from the Fed's.
It said it is examining the differences and that its financial capacity "may be higher than this year's test would otherwise indicate."
New rules from Congress recently reduced the number of banks which are subject to the tests.
After changes passed this spring, banks with less than $100bn in assets are exempt from the reviews. Previously, banks with $50bn or more were generally subject to the tests

Friday, June 22, 2018

The European Union (EU) has introduced retaliatory tariffs on US goods as a top official launched a fresh attack on President Donald Trump's trade policy.
The duties on €2.8bn (£2.4bn) worth of US goods came into force on Friday.
Tariffs have been imposed on products such as bourbon whiskey, motorcycles and orange juice.
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said duties imposed by the US on the EU go against "all logic and history".
India, meanwhile, has said it will raise taxes on 29 products imported from the US - including some agricultural goods, steel and iron products - in retaliation for the wide-ranging US tariffs.
The new duties will come into effect from 4 August and will affect US almonds, walnuts and chick peas, among other products.
India is a top buyer of US almond exports and so the move is expected to hurt farmers in America.
The Trump administration announced in March that it would introduce tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium imported into the US.
After being deferred, the duties on steel and aluminium went ahead on 1 June and affect the EU, Canada, Mexico and other close US allies, including India.
European Commission president Mr Juncker, who has previously criticised the move, said on Thursday: "It goes against all logic and history. Our response must be clear but measured."
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and US President Donald TrumpImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionEuropean Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker (L) and US President Donald Trump (R)
Addressing the Irish parliament in Dublin, he added that "we will do what we have to do to rebalance and safeguard" the EU.
The majority of US goods targeted by the EU, such as tobacco, Harley Davidson motorcycles, cranberries and peanut butter, will now carry a tariff of 25%.
However, the EU has introduced a 50% duty on goods such as footwear, some types of clothing and washing machines.
The new duties have been imposed as tensions over trade continued to grow between the US and China.
Harley Davidson motorcycleImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionImports of US goods such as Harley Davidson motorcycles will be hit with tariffs
Earlier this week, Mr Trump threatened to impose 10% duties on an additional $200bn (£150bn) worth of Chinese goods which he said would come into force if China "refuses to change its practices".
However, China accused the US of an act of "extreme pressure and blackmail" and said it would respond with "strong countermeasures".

Why is the US imposing tariffs?

President Trump believes that if you have a trade deficit - if you import more than you export - you are losing out.
He is especially irked by the hefty deficits in US trade with China and Mexico, but has indicated that he will not let any country "take advantage of us on trade anymore"
The US trade deficit has increased in recent years, running at around $50 billion (£38bn).
However, this could be the result of a stronger economy, with US consumers buying more goods from overseas.
The new tariffs are meant to correct this imbalance.
There were confrontational scenes and words after the recent G7 summit in Quebec, at which the other major world economies challenged Mr Trump's tariffs and trade policies.
A photo from the summit went viral, showing the leaders of the other member nations standing over the president, sitting with his arms crossed.
The US tariffs, and retaliatory measures from other states, have caused fears of a trade war, weighing on global stocks.
In the past however, President Trump has said trade wars are good and "easy to win", despite a jittery response from the markets.