Thursday, November 20, 2014

Reuters News - Special Report: Crimean savers ask: Where's our money?

People stand in line to withdraw money at an automated teller machine (ATM) of Ukrainian bank Privatbank in Simferopol, in this March 14, 2014 file photo.  REUTERS-Vasily Fedosenko-Files
People stand in line to withdraw money at an automated teller machine (ATM) of Ukrainian bank Privatbank in Simferopol, in this March 14, 2014 file photo.
CREDIT: REUTERS/VASILY FEDOSENKO/FILES
(Reuters) - Outside a high-rise building on the outskirts of this disputed region's capital, a steady stream of frustrated residents exited a government office, clutching folders of bank records and shaking their heads in disgust.
    "They are not returning the money," complained Margarita Pobudilova, a 77-year-old retired factory worker who for months has been unable to access more than $3,000 of her life savings.

    Ten months after Russia invaded this Black Sea peninsula and seized it from Ukraine, the financial fallout is still being felt. Thousands of ordinary citizens have little or no access to their funds. Losses for Ukrainian banks continue to mount as billions of dollars worth of loans they issued in Crimea go unpaid. Lawyers for the banks are preparing legal actions against Russia, which confiscated many of the banks' buildings, equipment and cash.
Meanwhile, Crimea has been thrust into a kind of technological time warp: Most ATMs no longer accept non-Russian bank cards; foreign credit cards can't be used to buy things. Most non-local mobile phones can't receive a signal. And even if they could, calling other Crimeans is complicated: Most of the peninsula's residents recently had to get new mobile phone numbers because Ukrainian services were cut off.
    The banking and phone chaos are another front in the conflict between Ukraine andRussia.
    In Crimea, which has been part of Ukraine for 60 years, Russia has basically blown up the existing banking system, forcing Ukrainian banks to close, banning the Ukrainian currency and replacing the region's retail banking network almost overnight. The resulting economic turmoil has shuttered some businesses and complicated life for thousands, forcing people to deal with a Kafkaesque bureaucracy to try to get their money returned.
    For all the havoc Russian President Vladimir Putin's conquest has caused, many living here don't blame him for their hardship. In interviews, residents accused Ukrainian banks and the government in Kiev of stealing their money. That distrust indicates – at least for now – a victory for Russia in the propaganda war and suggests that Kiev's chances of regaining the peninsula soon are slim.
    The international community has condemned Russia's annexation of Crimea, with the United States and the European Union imposing economic sanctions on Russian individuals, companies and banks. Russia has retaliated with its own sanctions and support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
    Andriy Pyshnyy is chairman of the management board of Ukraine's state-owned Oschadbank, which until March had 296 branches in Crimea. He described how one day they were taken over by Russian banks. "In the evening (our) outlets work," he said. "In the morning, a new bank is opened and just the name is changed to RNCB Bank." Russian National Commercial Bank is one of at least 30 Russian banks that have rushed in to fill Crimea's financial vacuum.
    Many in Crimea – where average monthly wages last year were less than $400 – still can't access their Ukrainian bank accounts.
    The situation was exacerbated in April when Putin offered Crimeans who had leased their cars through Privatbank, Ukraine's largest bank, some unusual financial advice.
    Toward the end of a live television broadcast in which Putin answered viewers' questions, he dipped his hand into a folder and read out this one: "I hired a car on lease from Privatbank. It will take me only two years to repay the loan," he said. "Privatbank no longer operates in Crimea. What am I supposed to do?"
    The president's answer: "Please use the car and don't worry."
    The remark may have been related to an ongoing feud between Putin and Ihor Kolomoisky, one of Privatbank's largest shareholders. Russia has accused Kolomoisky of funding Ukrainian battalions fighting the separatists.
    In any case, following Putin's suggestion, thousands of individuals and companies that had borrowed money from Ukrainian banks stopped repaying their loans.
    "If the ruler of the country told them not to pay, why would they pay?" asked Alexander Dubilet, chairman of Privatbank, which had lent more than $1 billion in Crimea.
    In all, Ukrainian banks had loaned Crimean businesses and individuals about $1.8 billion at the time Crimea was annexed, according to Ukraine's central bank.
    Pyshnyy of Oschadbank says "99.99 percent" of its loans in Crimea - which totaled more than $500 million - are now delinquent.
    The surge in bad loans has made it more difficult for Ukrainian banks to repay Crimean depositors, according to an official with Ukraine's central bank. The fact that the Russians also seized many of their branch offices and records didn't help, either. "To function properly, we need ... access to our branch network, our outlets, our ATMs, to our documents, our files," Pyshnyy said.
   
    FROZEN FUNDS
    To help Crimeans, Moscow has been compensating depositors with accounts at Ukrainian banks through a fund that insures Russian bank deposits. According to the Fund for the Protection of Depositors in Crimea, which is part of Russia's Deposit Insurance Agency, as of Nov. 6 it had paid out more than $500 million to 196,400 depositors.
    The compensation is capped. Yevgenia Bavykina, Crimea's new deputy prime minister in charge of economic affairs, told Reuters last month that depositors were owed more than $425 million in part because the fund has a limit of about $15,000 per bank account.
    She said the fund still hopes to repay depositors the rest of their money by selling property confiscated from Ukrainian banks. Crimea's government also is urging people who took out loans to repay them to the deposit protection fund, rather than to Ukrainian banks. Expressing confidence they will comply, she said, "People here are notable for their decency and their volunteering."
    Bavykina said the fund has compensated most people who have applied. In thousands of cases, however, it has had difficulty verifying exactly how much money was on deposit, she said.
    With no Ukrainian bank branches left operating in Crimea, the required verification records often aren't available, frustrated Crimeans say.
    Pobudilova, the retired factory worker, had invested about $3,600 in a one-month deposit at Ukraine's Kyiv Rus Bank in February. By the time her investment matured, the Russians had invaded Crimea, and Ukrainian banks were being forced out. She said she has no access to the money because the bank blocked her debit card.
    She applied to the deposit protection fund, but was told it could not compensate her unless her investment contract with her bank was extended. The fund advised her to write to Kyiv Rus Bank.
    Her grandson, Vladimir, said she tried to contact the bank. "They did not even want to talk to her," he said.
    Kyiv Rus Bank declined to comment.
    Pobudilova said she had planned to give the money to her grandchildren but now doesn't know what to do. "The fund is saying I am supposed to receive the extended contract from the bank," she said. "I'm 77 years old. I'm not able to deal with that."
   
    "I WILL LOSE LOTS OF MONEY"
    In another case, a retiree named Iryna, who declined to provide her last name, said she has no access to more than $100,000 on deposit at Privatbank and has received no satisfaction from either the fund or the bank.
    She said her problems began with her passport. She has lived in Crimea for 40 years but had replaced her passport two years ago in Ukraine's capital, Kiev, after the pages split apart. The new passport stated she lived in Kiev.
    After the annexation, she said, "I realized I was in trouble." She said she spent months trying to change her passport to list her address in Crimea, eventually going to court.
    When she tried to withdraw her money from Privatbank, she said the bank only offered her a five-year savings agreement that paid 7 percent annual interest – much less than Ukraine's annual inflation rate. She said she refused. Privatbank said it could not comment on the specifics of her case without more information.
    By the time she won her court case and obtained an official document stating she is a Crimea resident, she said she had missed the deposit protection fund's deadline for applying.
    The fund is now offering her only partial compensation. "I will lose lots of money," she said. "And I need that money for my son's education."
   
    ANY CHEATING?
    Legally, Ukrainian banks are required to repay Crimean depositors because Ukraine does not recognize the Russian annexation, said Oleksandr Pysaruk, first deputy governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, the country's central bank. But he said the hundreds of millions of dollars in delinquent loans make that difficult.
    "If you're liable on the savings but the loans don't get repaid, you've got a capital hole," he said.
    Ukrainian banks' policies towards their Crimean customers vary. Some give priority to Crimeans who have moved to other parts of Ukraine. But only 19,150 people out of a population of nearly two million have migrated, according to Ukraine's Ministry for Social Policy. As for delinquent loans, Privatbank is continuing to charge interest; Oschadbank's chairman says his bank isn't. "We want to understand the position of the borrowers," said Pyshnyy.
    Executives with state-controlled Ukrgasbank in Kiev, which had 11 branches in Crimea, said any of its customers there could travel to other parts of Ukraine and withdraw their deposits. By August, depositors had withdrawn 80 percent of the $25 million in funds on deposit.
    Oschadbank has a similar policy of allowing customers to access their funds elsewhere in Ukraine, and "is the only bank in Ukraine where the individuals' funds and placements are guaranteed by the state for 100 percent," said Pyshnyy. He said the bank carefully checks records submitted by customers, especially those who still reside in Crimea. "We want to be sure about any cheating of the bank by customers."
    Pysaruk, the central bank official, said some Crimeans have tried to double-dip by seeking compensation from both the Russian fund and Ukrainian banks. "We don't have numbers, but they were not just random occasions," he said.
    Privatbank, which in Crimea had 321,000 clients with deposits, has suspended all of its bank accounts there. Crimeans who have moved elsewhere in Ukraine can receive part of their deposits back, Dubilet said. For those still living in Crimea, "we're asking our clients to wait some time until we have solved these issues in the courts."
   
    RUSSIAN PRESSURE
    How long that will take remains unclear.
    The Crimean protection fund said it has paid out more than $250 million to 109,300 Privatbank customers. But Privatbank and other banks do not know which of their depositors have been reimbursed or how much.
    Privatbank chairman Dubilet said the Russians seized more than $150 million of the bank's real estate and equipment, $30 million from its safes and another $10 million from its ATMs. In April, Privatbank sold its Moscow subsidiary, saying it was the victim of "unprecedented political pressure" by Russian authorities.
    Dubilet said Privatbank hasn't yet calculated its total losses in Crimea. He said its lawyers are considering legal action against Russia in several jurisdictions. Meanwhile, a Crimean court ruled this week that Privatbank owes local depositors $232 million and should pay them back.
Privatbank's problems in Russia and Crimea appear to be related to a nasty spat between Putin and Kolomoisky, a billionaire businessman who is one of the bank's largest shareholders.
    In March, after Kolomoisky was appointed governor of a region in eastern Ukraine, Putin called him "a unique imposter." In telling Crimeans not to worry about car loans owed to Privatbank, Putin added, "If Mr. Kolomoisky and Mr. Finkelshtein don't want your money, it's their problem." Boris Finkelshtein is the former head of Privatbank's Crimea operations.
    Russian authorities later launched a criminal case against Kolomoisky, issuing an arrest warrant, confiscating some of his property in Russia and accusing him of organizing and funding Ukrainian forces in the separatist conflict. The case remains open.
   At a press conference in March, Kolomoisky referred to Putin as "completely unstable, completely mad. He has this messianic urge to restore the Russian empire to the borders of 1913 or the Soviet Union to the borders of 1991."
    Kolomoisky didn't respond to a request for comment.
    Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, said the president had no conflict with Kolomoisky. "The only thing is that Mr. Kolomoisky is sponsoring units of extremists in the eastern regions (of Ukraine). This is the problem, and this is the reason why he's being treated in Russia as a guy sponsoring extremists."
    As for Putin's suggestion not to repay loans to Privatbank, Peskov said the president was referring to the fact that the banks' branches were closed. "That's the meaning: because if you don't have any branch to make a payment then you don't pay."
    The tensions between Kiev and Moscow will make it harder to solve problems like the one Ukraine's central bank faces. The Russians did not confiscate the central bank's building in Simferopol, but the bank has no access to about $250 million in Ukrainian currency in its vault.
    Pysaruk, the first deputy governor, said the bank has held discussions with Russia's central bank and while the Russians indicated they might be willing to buy the building and return the cash, no agreement has been reached.
    Calling the annexation of Crimea "a land grab," Pysaruk said Russia should be responsible for all costs, including compensating Ukrainian banks for their losses. "The simplest way, if you ask me, would be for the Russians to pick up the check for everything," he said.
(Additional reporting by Natalia Zinets in Kiev,; Maya Nikolaeva in Paris and Michael Shields; in Vienna; Edited by Simon Robinson)

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

BBC News - China to double Iranian investment

China is set to double its investment in Iranian infrastructure projects, Iran's Mehr news agency reports
Iranian oil pipeline
Sanctions have made it hard for Iran to finance infrastructure projects
China has raised its quota for Iranian projects to $52bn (£33bn) from $25bn the report said, quoting Iran's deputy minister for energy, Esmail Mahsouli.
Water, electricity, oil and gas projects will all benefit from the extra financing, Mr Mahsouli said.
Iran has turned to China, Russia and Turkey for financing as Europe and the US have strict sanctions on the nation.
The US has an almost total economic embargo on Iran, while the European Union tightened up its sanctions in 2012, particularly targeting the energy and banking industries.
The US, the EU and other nations suspect Iran of developing atomic weapons and have imposed sanctions over that threat.
Iran says its nuclear programme is only for civilian use.
It is holding talks with world powers aimed at reaching a deal over its nuclear programme.
Negotiators meet in Vienna this week, ahead of a deadline to reach a deal by 24 November.
The US says it will unblock $2.8bn in frozen Iranian funds, in return for Iran continuing to convert its stocks of 20%-enriched uranium into fuel.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Bloomberg News - Draghi Says ECB Measures Could Include Buying Government Bonds

Photographer: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg
Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, insisted his institution can’t fix the economy on its own and began his comments in the parliament yesterday by presenting European lawmakers with a list of policy resolutions for them to pursue next year.
Mario Draghi has explicitly cited government-bond buying as a policy tool officials could use to stimulate the economy should the outlook worsen.
“Unconventional measures might entail the purchase of a variety of assets, one of which is sovereign bonds,” the European Central Bank president said in Brussels yesterday in answer to a question during his quarterly testimony to lawmakers at the European Parliament.
Draghi had stopped short of mentioning government debt in opening remarks yesterday and after the ECB’s monthly policy decision on Nov. 6, even as he said that officials have been tasked with the preparation of further stimulus measures. His latest comments come less than three weeks before the institution’s critical December meeting, when it will publish new forecasts that are likely to show a weaker outlook for growth and inflation.
While Draghi will succeed in his goal of boosting the ECB’s balance sheet back toward 3 trillion euros ($3.74 trillion), he’ll have to override some policy makers’ qualms on quantitative easing to do so, according to a majority of economists in Bloomberg’s monthly survey. So far, the ECB has restricted purchases to covered bonds, though asset-backed securities are now on its shopping list too.
Data released yesterday showed that officials accelerated covered-bond buying last week, with the total settled rising by more than 3 billion euros -- up from 2.6 billion euros the week before -- to 10.5 billion euros.
ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch said yesterday that purchases of ABS will start this week. He also said that the central bank could “theoretically” buy sovereign debt, gold, exchange-traded funds, and even real estate to counter a longer period of low inflation, while warning against rushing in.

2015 Resolutions

“Unconventional monetary policy measures can have also unintended side effects in the medium and long term if we use them too aggressively or too extensively,” Mersch said at a conference inFrankfurt. “Every possible new measure must therefore be thoroughly screened for effectiveness, efficiency and and conformity with out mandate.”
Draghi insisted his institution can’t fix the economy on its own and began his comments in the parliament yesterday by presenting European lawmakers with a list of policy resolutions for them to pursue next year.
“2015 needs to be the year when all actors in the euro area, governments and European institutions alike, will deploy a consistent common strategy to bring our economies back on track,” he said. “Monetary policy has done a lot. It can do more if structural reforms are implemented. It can’t do everything.”

Fiscal Tension

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew urged Germany last week to spend more to spur the euro-area economy, saying Europe’s “status-quo policies” don’t support the Group of 20’s growth agenda. Germany and the Netherlands should “pursue more fiscal policies to boost demand,” he said in Seattle.
That message was hinted at yesterday by the ECB’s chief economist, Peter Praet, who is also a member of the Executive Board.
“Countries which have some fiscal leeway should think how to use it in the best interest of their own economies and the euro area,” Praet said in an interview published in the Nikkei newspaper.
Such comments are at odds with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s pledge to balance Germany’s budget. Her stance was backed yesterday by the Bundesbank in its monthly bulletin.
“A still-high debt ratio and unfavorable demographic developments also speaks for Germany’s pursuit of a structurally balanced budget in the medium term,” the Bundesbank said, adding that much-needed investment in infrastructure can be financed without new debt.
In the parliament, Draghi said there is an “urgent need to agree on concrete short-term commitments for structural reforms in the member states” and on the “aggregate fiscal stance for the euro area.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Stirling in London at cstirling1@bloomberg.net

Monday, November 17, 2014

BBC News - G20 summit: Leaders pledge to grow their economies by 2.1%

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has closed the G20 summit by detailing economic pledges agreed by world leaders.
The leaders agreed to boost their economies by at least 2.1% by 2018, adding $2 trillion to global economies.
Much of the summit focused on Russian President Vladimir Putin's position on the crisis in Ukraine.
Mr Putin faced fierce criticism and left the meeting before it ended, but said the summit was "constructive".
Mr Putin said he was leaving before the release of the official communique, citing the long flight to home to Russia and the need for sleep.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders at the G20 Summit in Brisbane, Australia, 15 November 2014President Putin faced a frosty reception from Western leaders at the G20 meeting
'Violating international law'
Australia, as host of the meeting, had sought to keep the focus on economic issues, but the issues of climate change and the conflict in Ukraine attracted significant attention.
US President Barack Obama met European leaders on Sunday to discuss a co-ordinated response to what they see as Russia's destabilisation of Ukraine.
Mr Obama told reporters Mr Putin was "violating international law, providing heavy arms to the separatists in Ukraine" and violating the Minsk agreement.
He said the "economic isolation" of Russia would continue unless Mr Putin changed course.
In a television interview on Saturday, Mr Putin called for an end to sanctions against Russia, saying they harmed the world economy as well as Russia.
The Kremlin denies sending military forces or heavy weapons to pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine.
During the summit, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and British Prime Minister David Cameron also sharply criticised Mr Putin.
Millions of jobs
US President Barack Obama, centre, and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, right, walk off stage with other world leaders after the G20 Summit family photo in Brisbane, Australia, on 15 November 2014The G20 groups leaders from rich and emerging economies
World leaders agreed to plans drawn up by finance ministers from G20 countries in February, known as the Brisbane Action Plan, to boost their collective GDP growth by at least 2%.
This is a pretty ambitious target for many G20 economies that are struggling with recession or very little growth, says the BBC's James Landale from Brisbane.
In his speech, Mr Abbott said those reforms would create millions of jobs. He also outlined plans to increase the participation of women in the global workforce, and to crack down on tax avoidance by multi-national companies.
The statement also agreed to take strong, effective action on climate change, following pressure from the US and European leaders.
Mr Abbott had faced criticism from environmental campaigners for not including talks on climate change in the summit.
In other developments, President Obama met the leaders of Japan and Australia on the sidelines of the summit and they called for the peaceful resolution of maritime disputes in the South China Sea.
G20 leaders also released a statement in which they vowed to do all they could to "extinguish" the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
It said that member states were committed to do what was necessary "to ensure the international effort can extinguish the outbreak and address its medium-term economic and humanitarian costs".
line
Koala diplomacy
Koala diplomacy? Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Vladimir Putin had this photo op, despite tensionsKoala diplomacy? Australia's Tony Abbot and President Putin had this photo op, despite tensions
Australian first lady Margie Abbott, China's first lady Peng Liyuan and Canada's first lady Laureen Harper holding koalas at a koala sanctuary in Brisbane on 15 November 2015Some of the leaders' spouses cuddled up to koalas at a sanctuary in Brisbane
  • World leaders and their spouses were given koalas to hold on the fringes of the summit - the animals are native to Australia
  • First protected by law in the 1930s after being hunted to extinction by fur traders in parts of Australia; declared a threatened species in 2012
  • Species recently severely affected by chlamydia, which can cause blindness, infertility and death among the animals
  • Began being used as a diplomatic tool in early 1980s, after government lifts export ban - they are often given to foreign zoos as gifts
  • They are not bears, but are marsupials

Friday, November 14, 2014

Reuters News - Ukraine and Russia take center stage as leaders gather for G20

British Prime Minister David Cameron addresses a joint session of the Australian Parliament in Canberra November 14, 2014.   REUTERS-David Gray
British Prime Minister David Cameron addresses a joint session of the Australian Parliament in Canberra November 14, 2014.
CREDIT: REUTERS/DAVID GRAY
 (Reuters) - The G20 leaders summit in Australia starting on Saturday is setting up as a showdown between Western leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin, following fresh reports of Russian troops pouring into eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine has accused Russia of sending soldiers and weapons to help separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine launch a new offensive in a conflict that has killed more than 4,000 people.
British Prime Minister David Cameron blasted Russia's actions as unacceptable on Friday, warning that they could draw greater sanctions from the United States and the European Union.
"I would still hope that the Russians will see sense and recognize that they should allow Ukraine to develop as an independent and free country, free to make its choices," Cameron told reporters in Canberra.
"If Russia takes a positive approach towards Ukraine's freedom and responsibility, we could see those sanctions removed, if Russia continues to make matters worse then we could see those sanctions increased, it's as simple as that."
Russia denies sending troops and tanks into Ukraine.
But increasing violence, truce violations and reports of unmarked armed convoys traveling from the direction of the Russian border have aroused fears that a shaky Sept. 5 truce could collapse.
The G20 leaders summit in Brisbane is focused on boosting world growth, fireproofing the global banking system and closing tax loopholes for giant multinationals.
But with much of the economic agenda agreed and a climate change deal signed last week in Beijing between the United States and China, security concerns are moving to center-stage.
Ukraine has not been a top focus during a pair of summits in Asia this past week, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes said, although President Barack Obama did raise it briefly with Putin when both attended the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in China.
Obama arrives in Brisbane on Saturday and will be discussing his frustration over Ukraine with a key bloc including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Cameron.
"They've been key towards sending a shared message to the Russians and the Ukrainian government," Rhodes told reporters. "So it will be an opportunity for him to check in with them."
CONSENSUS TO ALLOW PUTIN
There had been calls from some in Australia to block Putin from attending the summit given Russia's actions in Ukraine and the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 by Russian-backed rebels, but the overwhelming consensus was against it.
News reports that a convoy of Russian warships had arrived earlier this week in international waters north of Brisbane, the venue of the summit, also created a flutter.
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said it was unusual but not unprecedented for the Russian navy to be so far south.
"Let’s not forget that Russia has been much more militarily assertive in recent times," he said on Thursday. "We're seeing, regrettably, a great deal of Russian assertiveness right now in Ukraine."
Merkel, speaking to reporters in Auckland, played down any threat posed by the warships but joined the leaders speaking out against Putin ahead of his arrival in Brisbane on Friday evening.
"What is concerning me quite more is that the territorial integrity of Ukraine is being violated and that the agreement of Minsk is not followed," she said, referring to the truce accord.
In addition to Ukraine, the crises in the Middle East are threatening to overshadow the economic agenda.
British nationals who become foreign fighters abroad could be prevented from returning home under new laws to deal with jihadists fighting in conflicts like Iraq and Syria, Cameron said in an address to the Australian parliament on Friday.
As host, Australia will continue pushing its growth agenda despite growing security tensions.
"The focus of this G20 will be on growth and jobs," Abbott said at a press conference with Cameron. "You can't have prosperity without security."
Canberra is pushing for an increase in global growth targets of 2 percent by 2018 to create millions of jobs and that goal appears on track. Over 1,000 policy initiatives proposed by G20 nations should add around 2.1 percent, the head of the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said.
Taxation arrangements of global companies such as Google Inc (GOOG.O), Apple Inc(AAPL.O) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) have become a hot political topic following media and parliamentary investigations into how many companies reduce their tax bills.
The OECD has unveiled a series of measures that could stop companies from employing many commonly used practices to shift profits into low-tax centers.
Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey said Australia had won U.S. cooperation to launch an "aggressive crackdown" on tax avoidance.
(Additional reporting by Lincoln Feast and Jane Wardell in Brisbane and Gernot Heller in Auckland; Editing by Michael Perry and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Bloomberg News - RBA’s Kent Sees Growth Picking Up in 2016 as Currency Falls

Photographer: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg
Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia, said the central bank’s assessment of recent data is that the moderate growth recorded in the second quarter -- 0.5 percent -- has been maintained over recent months
Australia’s economy will probably accelerate in 2016 as the currency falls in response to higher U.S. interest rates, central bank Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said.
Any Federal Reserve tightening would likely see “a further depreciation of the Australian dollar, which remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the substantial declines in commodity prices,” Kent, who oversees economic forecasts, said in a speech text in Sydney today. “Growth will continue to be a bit below trend for a time, picking up gradually to be a bit above trend pace by 2016.”
Australia’s central bank has adopted a policy of patience, keeping rates at a record-low 2.5 percent for 15 months and flagging they will remain unchanged, as it aims to stimulate domestic growth drivers. In response, housing has boomed, while companies have refrained from opening their pocket books.
Business investment outside mining has been hampered by “a period of greater uncertainty and below-average confidence,” Kent said. “Both of these have changed for the better more recently, yet firms still seem reluctant to take on risks associated with substantial new investment projects. If the appetite of businesses, and shareholders, for risk were to improve, investment could pick up.”

Aussie Strength

The central banker reiterated that intervention in foreign-exchange markets remained an option if needed to push the Australian dollar lower. It fell after his comments and was trading at 86.94 U.S. cents at 2:53 p.m. in Sydney from 87.28 cents before the remarks.
“We haven’t ruled it out,” Kent said. “It’s still there as an option if needed.”
The currency averaged 93 U.S. cents in the past seven years and touched a record high of more than $1.10 in 2011. That compares with an average 68 U.S. cents in the previous seven years that included a record low of 47.8 cents in 2001.
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. senior economist Felicity Emmett said intervention is unlikely.
“The Bank has previously highlighted that successful intervention occurs when market dysfunction has removed liquidity or when valuation is at an extreme,” she said in a research note today. “We are not at this point now.”

Moderate Growth

Kent said the Reserve Bank of Australia’s assessment of recent data is that the moderate growth recorded in the second quarter -- 0.5 percent -- has been maintained over recent months. “Pulling this all together suggests that growth has been below trend for the past two years or more,” he said.
“The near-term weakness reflects a combination of three forces: a sharper decline in mining investment over the coming quarters than seen to date; the effects of the still high level of theexchange rate; and ongoing fiscal consolidation at state and federal levels,” Kent said.
He repeated the nation’s 11-year high unemployment rate of 6.2 percent “is likely to remain elevated for some time.”
Kent said the central bank projects long-term average growth for Australia’s major trading partners for the next two years.
The RBA cut rates by 2.25 percentage points from a developed-world high of 4.75 percent between late 2011 and August 2013. Loose policy has boosted house prices, which climbed 13.1 percent in Sydney in the year through October and 8.9 percent in Melbourne, according to an RP Data-CoreLogic Home Value Index. Retail sales also surged in September by 1.2 percent, four times faster than economists estimated.
“Low interest rates, and higher housing prices, have also lent support to the growth of consumption, which has picked up over the past year or so, notwithstanding the weak growth of incomes,” Kent said. “The strength of this effect is most apparent in those states for which housing market conditions have been strongest.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net