Bloomberg News - Bonus Gains Expected by More Than 33% of London Finance Staff

More than a third of London’s finance staff expect a higher bonus for 2015 than the previous year, a recruitment company said, even as lenders from Barclays Plc to Deutsche Bank AG struggle to boost revenue.

Almost two-thirds of employees in the City, London’s financial district, expect to receive a bonus for last year, according to London-based recruitment firm Astbury Marsden, which surveyed more than 1,000 employees across firms including banks, investment managers, building societies and trade exchanges. Senior executives, including managing directors and partners, predict bonuses amounting to about 61 percent of their salary, or about 100,000 pounds ($143,000) on average, the company said in a statement.

Europe’s biggest investment banks, already grappling with new capital rules from regulators, face increased pressure on revenue as a selloff in crude oil deepens and amid China’s economic slowdown. Brevan Howard Asset Management, one of Europe’s biggest hedge funds, had a second straight decline at its main macro fund in 2015, a person familiar said earlier this month.

“With investment bankers predicting a rise to their bonus payments this season, the current state of the market suggests that such positivity may be unjustified,” Adam Jackson, managing director of Astbury Marsden, said in the statement. “Top level management are particularly bullish, but this optimism is being severely tested.”

At Barclays, the bonus pool for 2015 may be cut by at least 10 percent from the previous year as Britain’s second-largest lender eliminates jobs at its investment bank, a person with knowledge of the matter said last week.

by Donal Griffin

BBC News - Asian markets rally as oil prices rebound

Image copyrightGetty Images

Markets in Asia have rallied, picking up on a rebound in oil prices and a strong lead from the US and Europe.

The recovery comes after a sharp sell-off earlier in the week.

Hints from European Central Bank on Thursday that it might consider more monetary easing helped lift investors' confidence.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 jumped 5.9% to close at 16,958.53, after hitting at 15-month low the previous day.

Markets in China also managed to recover some of the past days' heavy losses.

The mainland benchmark Shanghai Composite gained 0.8% to 2,901.32 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.2% to 18,950.19 points.

Markets were encouraged by a recovery in oil prices, which had hit 12-year lows earlier in the week.

Brent crude was up 98 cents at $30.23 a barrel, while US crude was 85 cents higher at $30.38 a barrel.

Commodity shares profit

In Australia, the S&P ASX 200 closed by 1.1% higher, at 4,916.00 points.

Among the market's standout performers were several of the big oil and commodity companies, buoyed by a rise in the oil price.

BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto were 7.5% and 3.4% up respectively, while Santos climbed 11%.

Stocks of winemaker Treasury Wine Estates also stood out, jumping as much as 17.5% to a record high after the company provided strong full-year profits guidance in a market update.

Image copyrightAFP

Image captionTreasury Wine seems on track for a good year

In South Korea, the benchmark Kospi index followed the region's trend, closing the day 2.1% higher at 1,879.40 points.

Draghi reassures markets

On Thursday, shares in Europe and the US closed higher, helped by comments from European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi.

After the ECB had kept eurozone rates on hold, Mr Draghi hinted that the bank might take more action to try to stimulate the eurozone economy later this year.

He said the bank would "review and possibly reconsider" monetary policy at its next meeting in March.

Mr Draghi also said eurozone rates would "stay at present or lower levels for an extended period" and there would be "no limits" to action to reflate the eurozone.

BBC News - European markets stabilise after falls

Image copyrightAFP

European markets have opened slightly higher, a day after global turmoil saw billions wiped off the value of shares.

After falling 3.5% on Wednesday, London's benchmark FTSE 100 share index was up 0.5% in the first few minutes of trading.

Earlier, stocks in Asia had fallen further, with Japan's leading share index closing down by more than 2%.

Investors remain worried over the continuing slide in oil prices and slowing growth in China.

On Wednesday, global stock markets suffered hefty losses and London's FTSE 100 entered a "bear market", having fallen 20% from its record high in April last year.

But in the first few minutes of trade on Thursday, the FTSE 100 was up 31.78 points at 5,705.36.

• What markets are really worried about

• Just how low can oil prices go?

• China economic slowdown: Can it avoid a crash?

Oil market

Oil prices remained weak on Thursday, having hit their lowest levels since 2003 in the previous session.

A brief rally in crude prices quickly ran out of steam, and after climbing back above the $28-a-barrel mark, Brent crude fell back to $27.79.

US crude was trading at $28.23 a barrel, having fallen below $27 on Wednesday.

Crude oil prices have been falling since mid 2014, but oil-producing countries have maintained output despite the decline, contributing to the excess supplies on the market.

Earlier in the week, the International Energy Agency warned that oil markets could "drown in oversupply" in 2016.

'Good shape'

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 share index closed down 2.4%, while China's Shanghai Composite ended the day down 3.2%.

On Wednesday, US shares had also been hit, with the Dow Jones closing 1.6% lower after a volatile trading day.

However, Patrick Thomson from JP Morgan Asset Management told the BBC that investors should not panic.

"If you look at the US economy particularly, that is actually in pretty good shape," he said.

"You look at all of the data coming out recently, clearly growth is a little muted and corporate earnings are somewhat lower than expected due to energy prices and the strong dollar, but underlying fundamentals, particularly the US consumer, is in very good shape."

Reuters News - Oil slump rocks European stocks to lowest level in over a year

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European shares slid to their lowest since October 2014 on Wednesday following losses in U.S and Asian stock markets as the relentless slump in oil prices continued to drag on risk assets.

The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 fell 3.3 percent, set for its biggest single session loss of an already turbulent 2016 and breaking through the December 2014 low which had been its recent trough.

Germany's DAX .GDAXI, France's CAC .FCHI and Britain's FTSE .FTSE were all down around 3 percent and also set for their biggest fall of the year so far.

U.S. crude wallowed at its lowest since 2003 after the world's energy watchdog warned the market could "drown in oversupply". U.S. futures CLc1 shed 3.6 percent to $27.43 while Brent crude LCOc1 lost 3.1 percent to $27.87 a barrel.

Copper also slipped. Basic resources .SXPP and energy sector .SXEP were the sectors that fell most steeply in Europe, down 4.8 and 3.8 percent respectively.

Oil shares in Europe are down 13 percent already this year, also at their lowest levels since 2003. That has been a major weight on the FTSEurofirst 300, which is down more than 10 percent in 2016, which investors see as "correction" territory.

"I am quite pessimistic about the equity markets for the next two to three months. I do not see a 2008-style scenario, but I do see a bear market coming," said Andreas Clenow, hedge fund trader and principal at ACIES Asset Management, suggesting a further 10 percent fall to come.

Wall Street had seen its early gains on Tuesday erased by the tumble in U.S. crude. U.S. stock futures ESc1 were down 2.1 percent on Wednesday, indicating a weak start.

Risk aversion boosted appetite for the yen, a traditional safe-haven, which rose more than 1 percent against the dollar JPY= to its highest level in a year, while sterling hit its lowest since early 2014 GBPJPY=.

Demand for German Bunds, another safe-haven asset, was also high, and the 10-year Bund yield fell to its lowest level in more than eight months ahead of a European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday.

While the dollar fell against the yen, it was strong against emerging markets, compounding the misery for many countries already suffering from low oil prices.

Top emerging market shares .MSCIEF fell 2.9 percent to a 6-1/2 year low, while EM currencies were crushed. Russia's rouble RUBUTSTN=MCX teetered on the brink of a record low of 80.10 to the dollar.

"This is a different kind of dollar strength altogether ... this is quite clearly being driven by declining risk appetite, higher market volatility and lower commodity prices," said Aroop Chatterjee, a director of research at Barclays in London.

"In this new world emerging markets are the ones that bear the brunt of the dollar strength."

In Asia, stocks surrendered all of Tuesday's rare gains with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS falling 3 percent on the day and hitting its lowest since October 2011.

The Hong Kong stock market's benchmark index .HSI posted its single biggest daily fall since early August, while Japan's Nikkei .N225 closed down 3.7 percent. It is now 20 percent below last year's peak, meeting the technical definition of a bear market.

Chinese markets fared only marginally better amid mounting talk that more stimulus may be on the way, possibly before the Lunar New Year holidays in early February. A report in the government-backed China Securities Journal said Beijing had the policy space for further easing to support the economy.

The CSI300 index .CSI300 fell 1.5 percent, after rallying more than 3 percent on Tuesday. The Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC eased 1 percent.

China's central bank meanwhile revealed late on Tuesday that it would inject more than 600 billion yuan ($91.22 billion) into the banking system to help ease a liquidity squeeze expected before the long Lunar New Year celebrations.

Such a move is usual before the holidays, however, and stopped well short of an actual cut in bank reserve ratios.

(Additional reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta and Marc Jones in London, Wayne Cole in Sydney and Saikat Chatterjee in Hong Kong; Editing by Catherine Evans)

BBC News - Hollande says France in state of economic emergency

Image copyrig
htPresident Francois Hollande has set out a €2bn (£1.5bn) job creation plan in an attempt to lift France out of what he called a state of "economic emergency".

Under a two-year scheme, firms with fewer than 250 staff will get subsidies if they take on a young or unemployed person for six months or more.

In addition, about 500,000 vocational training schemes will be created.

France's unemployment rate is 10.6%, against a European Union average of 9.8% and 4.2% in Germany.

Mr Hollande said money for the plan would come from savings in other areas of public spending.

"These €2bn will be financed without any new taxes of any kind," said President Hollande, who announced the details during an annual speech to business leaders.

"Our country has been faced with structural unemployment for two to three decades and this requires that creating jobs becomes our one and only fight."

France was facing an "uncertain economic climate and persistent unemployment" and there was an "economic and social emergency", he said.

Scepticism

The president said recently that the country's social emergency, caused by unemployment, was as serious as the emergency caused by terrorism.

He called on his audience to help "build the economic and social model for tomorrow".

The president also addressed the issue of labour market flexibility.

"Regarding the rules for hiring and laying off, we need to guarantee stability and predictability to both employers and employees. There is room for simplification," he said.

"The goal is also more security for the company to hire, to adapt its workforce when economic circumstances require, but also more security for the employee in the face of change and mobility".

However, the BBC's Paris correspondent Hugh Schofield said there was widespread scepticism that the plan would have any lasting impact.

"Despite regular announcements of plans, pacts and promises, the number of those out of work continues to rise in France.

"With a little over a year until the presidential election in which he hopes to stand for a second term, President Hollande desperately needs good news on the jobs front. But given the huge gap so far between his words and his achievements, there is little expectation that this new plan will bear fruit in time", our correspondent said.

Reuters News - U.S. and EU firms warn of 'enormous' consequences if data pact talks fail

An illustration picture shows a projection of binary code on a man holding a laptop computer, in an office in Warsaw June 24, 2013.

REUTERS/KACPER PEMPEL

The two largest American and European trade groups have warned of "enormous" consequences for thousands of businesses and millions of users if Brussels and Washington fail to wrap up talks on a data transfer pact by the end of the month.

The United States and Washington accelerated negotiations on a new framework enabling firms to easily transfer personal data across the Atlantic after the previous one was struck down by a top EU court last year on concerns about U.S. snooping.

Under European Union data protection law, companies cannot transfer EU citizens' personal data to countries outside the bloc deemed to have insufficient privacy safeguards, of which the United States is one.

Since the EU's highest court ruled on Oct. 6 that the 15-year-old Safe Harbour framework, used by over 4,000 firms to transfer Europeans' data to the United States, did not adequately protect the data because U.S. national security requirements trumped privacy safeguards, firms on both sides of the Atlantic have been in legal limbo.

In a letter, seen by Reuters, to U.S. President Barack Obama, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and the 28 European heads of state, four business associations warned of the dire economic impact if data flows between the two blocs were disrupted.

"This issue must be resolved immediately or the consequences could be enormous for the thousands of businesses and millions of users impacted," the letter from U.S. Chamber of Commerce, BusinessEurope, DigitalEurope and the Information Technology Industry Council says. (bit.ly/1OqqMKX)

The groups also ask for a transition period to comply with any revised data transfer framework, especially for those small and medium-sized businesses that relied entirely on Safe Harbour.

IMPENDING DEADLINE

European Union data protection authorities gave Brussels and Washington until the end of January to forge a new pact and businesses the same deadline to set up alternative legal channels to transfer personal data across the Atlantic, such as binding corporate rules within multinationals or model clauses.

While a political agreement may be possible in that time, ironing out the legal details will take longer, according to a person familiar with the talks.

However the business groups warn that all data transfer mechanisms are in jeopardy as a result of the EU ruling, something echoed by lawyers, and that could impact nearly all financial transactions between the two largest economies in the world.

"We therefore urge your leadership to ensure a durable legal framework for transatlantic data flows in the future," the letter says.

EU privacy regulators are due to meet on Feb. 2 to decide if they should start taking enforcement action against companies if they come to the conclusion that all transfer mechanisms fall foul of EU law and there is no new framework in place.

Revelations two years ago of mass U.S. surveillance programs where American authorities collected private information directly from big tech firms like Apple (AAPL.O), Facebook (FB.O) and Google (GOOGL.O) riled Europe and set the stage for the European Court of Justice ruling.

(Editing by Ros Russell)

BBC News - Africa-China exports fall by 40% after China slowdown

African exports to China fell by almost 40% in 2015, China's customs office says.

South Africa hosted a China-Africa summit last month cementing ties between the two

China is Africa's biggest single trading partner and its demand for African commodities has fuelled the continent's recent economic growth.

The decline in exports reflects the recent slowdown in China's economy.

This has, in turn, put African economies under pressure and in part accounts for the falling value of many African currencies.

Is China a brake on Africa's progress?

Special report: China in Africa

Presenting China's trade figures for last year, customs spokesman Huang Songping told journalists that African exports to China totalled $67bn (£46.3bn), which was 38% down on the figure for 2014.

BBC Africa Business Report editor Matthew Davies says that as China's economy heads for what many analysts say will be a hard landing, its need for African oil, metals and minerals has fallen rapidly, taking commodity prices lower.

Chinese investment down

There is also less money coming from China to Africa, with direct investment from China into the continent falling by 40% in the first six months of 2015, he says.

Meanwhile, Africa's demand for Chinese goods is rising.

In 2015 China sent $102bn worth of goods to the continent, an increase of 3.6%.

Last year, South Africa hosted a China-Africa summit during which President Xi Jinping announced $60bn of aid and loans, symbolising the country's growing role on the continent.