Friday, July 20, 2012

BBC News - IMF's Peter Doyle scorns its 'tainted' leadership


A top economist at the International Monetary Fund has poured scorn on its "tainted" leadership and said he is "ashamed" to have worked there.
Christine LagardePeter Doyle claims there was a "fundamental illegitimacy" in Christine Lagarde's appointment
Peter Doyle said in a letter to the IMF executive board that he wanted to explain his resignation after 20 years.
He writes of "incompetence", "failings" and "disastrous" appointments for the IMF's managing director, stretching back 10 years.
No one from the Washington-based IMF was immediately available for comment.
Mr Doyle, former adviser to the IMF's European Department, which is running the bailout programs for Greece, Portugal and Ireland, said the Fund's delay in warning about the urgency of the global financial crisis was a failure of the "first order".
In the letter, dated 18 June and obtained by the US broadcaster CNN, Mr Doyle said the failings of IMF surveillance of the financial crisis "are, if anything, becoming more deeply entrenched".
He writes: "This fact is most clear in regard to appointments for managing director which, over the past decade, have all-too-evidently been disastrous.
"Even the current incumbent [Christine Lagarde] is tainted, as neither her gender, integrity, or elan can make up for the fundamental illegitimacy of the selection process."
Mr Doyle is thought to be echoing here widespread criticism that the head of the IMF is always a European, while the World Bank chief is always a US appointee.
Mr Doyle concludes his letter: "There are good salty people here. But this one is moving on. You might want to take care not to lose the others."
The IMF could not be reached immediately by the BBC. However, CNN reported that a Fund spokesman told it that there was nothing to substantiate Mr Doyle's claims and that the IMF had held its own investigations into surveillance of the financial crisis.

Reuters News - U.S. banks haunted by mortgage demons that won't go away


Home owners Jesse Fernandez (R) and his brother Joel Fernandez (C) speak with a Freddie Mac representative as they try to get a home loan modification during The Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America event in Phoenix, Arizona, February 4, 2011. REUTERS/Joshua Lott
Home owners Jesse Fernandez (R) and his brother Joel Fernandez (C) speak with a Freddie Mac representative as they try to get a home loan modification during The Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America event in Phoenix, Arizona, February 4, 2011.
Credit: Reuters/Joshua Lott
Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:46pm EDT
(Reuters) - Lenders like Bank of America Corp and Wells Fargo & Co say they are facing mounting pressure to buy back bad mortgages they sold to investors, signaling that banks' home-loan headaches could continue for years.
Investors like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been pressing banks to buy back bad mortgages for years, but in recent months those requests have intensified, the banks have said in recent second-quarter earningsreports.
These comments from banks provide a fresh reminder of the loose ends that remain from the housing bust that started five years ago. The threat of new expenses and litigation is dampening bank share prices, and the problem could linger for some time, analysts and experts said.
"This is not done yet," said Paul Miller, analyst with FBR Capital Markets. "There will be continued surprises in the industry."
The most pain will likely be felt by Bank of America, which said on Wednesday its total outstanding claims from investors surged more than 40 percent to about $22 billion in the second quarter. The bank's shares fell nearly 5 percent as investors worried about future losses and dropped again on Thursday.
At a time of low interest rates, U.S. banks are making many new loans to borrowers buying homes and refinancing, but anxiety about the costs of old loans is overshadowing some of this success.
During the housing boom in the last decade, banks parceled billions of dollars of loans into highly-structured residential mortgage-backed securities they then sold off to investors. The buyers of these loans included the now-government controlled agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as private investors.
When selling the mortgages, banks made promises or "representations and warranties" about the loans. Investors can ask banks to buy back soured mortgages if these promises were evidently broken, for reasons such as poor underwriting, insufficient verification of income or other documentation errors.
Banks have fought some of these claims, but most lenders still expect to have to buy back many of the mortgages.
Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank, faces the biggest threat from repurchase requests because in 2008 it bought subprime lender Countrywide Financial, a major producer of toxic loans during the housing boom. Its mortgage unit has posted more than $30 billion of losses since the beginning of 2010.
About half of the bank's claims are from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were placed in government conservatorship in 2008 as their loan losses ballooned.
Tensions are so high between Bank of America and Fannie Mae that the bank stopped selling some loans to the agency in February. According to a securities filing, Bank of America had the most outstanding repurchase requests with Fannie as of March 31 - $7.1 billion, or 58 percent of outstanding claims.
The bank, in its earnings presentation, said Fannie Mae's repurchase standards have been changing and differ from the bank's interpretation of its contracts. The bank, for example, has noted an increase in claims on loans in which the borrowers have made payments for at least two years.
Bank of America argues that when borrowers have made payments for two years or more, it is hard to fault the bank's underwriting instead of, for example, the state of the economy.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said they are looking out for U.S. taxpayers in making their claims. Fannie, for example, has said it may need more funds from the U.S. Treasury if it collects less than expected from Bank of America.
"Under our contracts, lenders are required to repurchase loans that are delivered to Fannie Mae but do not meet our standards," Fannie spokesman Andrew Wilson said. "We pursue repurchases in order to minimize losses and protect the interest of taxpayers."
Freddie Mac doesn't think taxpayers should have to pay for ineligible loans sold to the agency, said spokesman Michael Cosgrove. The top three reasons for Freddie claims against banks are problems with borrowers' income, loans that don't meet the bank's automated underwriting standards and problems with collateral or appraisals, he said. Freddie does not disclose claims by each bank.
ADDING TO RESERVES
Banks, including Wells Fargo and PNC Financial Services Group Inc said they expect to have to pay investors more than they previously thought, and they set aside additional funds to cover the requests. Fifth Third Bancorp on Thursday said it expects claims to increase later this year.
Wells Fargo, the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, set aside $669 million to cover repurchases, up from $242 million a year ago when it posted second quarter earnings last week.
"We want to make sure that we have got that reserve absolutely accrued for appropriately," Wells Chief Financial Officer Tim Sloan said in a conference call with analysts. "We saw the agencies continuing to adjust their requests."
PNC added $438 million to its reserves, up from $21 million a year ago.
Bucking the trend was JPMorgan Chase & Co, which said claims had reached an "inflection point" and were declining.
In addition to a jump in requests from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Bank of America said it is getting more claims from private investors who want to meet statute of limitations requirements. These claimants weren't part of an $8.5 billion settlement the bank reached last year with major institutional investors.
For the second quarter, Bank of America added $395 million to its repurchase reserves, which was more than the first quarter but way down from the $14 billion it set aside a year ago to cover the $8.5 billion settlement and other repurchase requests.
The bank now has about $16 billion in reserves to cover these claims, but FBR Capital Markets analyst Paul Miller wrote in a research note on Wednesday that the bank may not be putting enough aside to cover its future losses. Bank officials later called him to argue that they have sufficient reserves, he said.
The bank gave him a very strong argument, but he hasn't changed his mind, Miller said. "I have my opinion. They have their opinion," he said.
Bank spokesman Jerry Dubrowksi said the bank's calculations take into account the fact that collateral backs about half of its $22 billion in outstanding claims. In addition, the bank has historically paid out 8 to 12 cents on the dollar for the remaining balance for settlements with private investors, he said.
The bank on Wednesday said it is not possible to "reasonably" estimate the possible losses to Freddie Mac and Fannie. It did not change its estimate that losses to private investors could cost $5 billion more than existing reserves.
"We have significant reserves to handle potential representations and warranties claims," Dubrowski said.
Industrywide, repurchase requests may be near their peak, but are likely to remain a concern for at least another year or two, said Cliff Rossi, a teaching fellow at the University of Maryland's business school and a former bank executive.
"We are certainly not through it," he said. "It's another thing to give uncertainty to investors."
(Additional reporting by Michelle Conlin in New York; Editing by Eric Meijer)

Thursday, July 19, 2012

BBC News - China pledges $20bn in credit for Africa at summit


China has pledged $20bn (£12.8bn) in credit for Africa over the next three years, in a push for closer ties and increased trade.
China's President Hu Jintao (R) shakes hands with South Africa's President Jacob Zuma during the opening ceremony of the Fifth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, 19 July, 2012
Mr Hu called for better co-operation with African countries
President Hu Jintao made the announcement at a summit in Beijing with leaders from 50 African nations.
He said the loans would support infrastructure, agriculture and the development of small businesses.
The Chinese leader also called for better co-operation with African countries on international affairs.
As developing nations, China and countries in Africa should work better together in response to "the big bullying the small, the strong domineering over the weak and the rich oppressing the poor" in international affairs, said Mr Hu.
The loan is double the amount China pledged in a previous three-year period in 2009, since which time China has been Africa's largest trading partner.
Trade between the two hit a record high of $166bn (£106bn) in 2011, Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming wrote in the China Daily newspaper, ahead of the two-day forum.
"We want to continue to enhance our traditional friendship... rule out external interference and enhance mutual understanding and trust," said Mr Hu.
United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is also attending the fifth ministerial meeting of the Forum on China-Africa Co-operation.

China's top five trading partners in Africa (US$, 2010)

CountryTrade value
SOURCE: CHINA CUSTOMS DATA; FRONTIER ADVISORY ANALYSIS
1. Angola
$24.8bn
2. South Africa
$22.2bn
3. Sudan
$8.6bn
4. Nigeria
$7.8bn
5. Egypt
$7.0bn

'Balanced development'
On Wednesday, Mr Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao held bilateral talks with key African leaders, including South African President Jacob Zuma.
Africa is an important source of raw materials to feed China's economic boom and a market for cheap Chinese products, and has benefited from huge infrastructure projects in return, says the BBC's Damian Grammaticas.
But there are concerns Beijing turns a blind eye to corruption and claims its firms have committed labour abuses in Zimbabwe, Zambia and elsewhere, our correspondent adds.
Moves by some Chinese enterprises to hire mostly Chinese nationals have also drawn attention.
Mr Wen said that China would now focus on creating jobs for local residents and working with African countries for sustainable growth.
At an economic conference held in conjunction with the summit on Wednesday, he said China would ''expand imports'' of African products and ''further open'' its domestic market to African countries.
''We need to promote balanced development of trade between China and Africa,'' he said.
He also pledged that China would pay more attention to environmental protection and cultural issues in its dealings with the continent.
''As for some existing problems and new situations in China-Africa co-operation, the Chinese government is actively working with African countries to seek effective solutions and measures,'' Mr Wen said.
China and Africa's growing trade relationship in figures

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Reuters News - Special Report: Africa palm-oil plan pits activists vs N.Y. investors


Wangoe Philip Ekole, chief of the village of Fabe, gestures at home as he defends his support for the Herakles palm oil farm plantation project June 8, 2012. REUTERS-Emmanuel Braun
Wangoe Philip Ekole, chief of the village of Fabe, gestures at home as he defends his support for the Herakles palm oil farm plantation project June 8, 2012.
Credit: Reuters/Emmanuel Braun
FABE, Cameroon | Wed Jul 18, 2012 4:16am EDT
(Reuters) - It was a tough week for Cameroonian village chief Wangoe Philip Ekole.
People in Fabe, angry at his support for a palm-oil plantation in their rainforest home, had put a curse on its seedling nursery, prompting petrified workers to lay down their tools and flee.
Ekole, who believes the project will bring people jobs and wealth, had persuaded them to return. But the whiff of revolt remained. Many of his 200 or so subjects accused him of seeking to enrich himself through the project. Some even disowned him as their leader.
The village dispute is part of the global struggle to feed the world - and central to a New York investment fund's bid to capitalize on that effort in Africa.
Expanding markets from Nigeria to China are fuelling a voracious appetite for more food. A big part of that demand will have to be met by palm oil, a low-cost fat coveted by food manufacturers and a mainstay of cooking across the tropics. Since 2000, world demand for palm oil has doubled. Millions of hectares of forest in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia have been turned over to plantations.
That has prompted dismay among environmentalists and brought about tough new rules that are forcing planters to look elsewhere. One of those places is Cameroon, a central African state whose 20 million people live on an average of $3 a day. New York-based Herakles Farms proposes planting a palm-oil farm stretching over 60,000 hectares of land - 10 times the size of Manhattan.
Herakles says it will provide locals with steady work, roads and health care. But critics call the planned plantation, which would cover Fabe and at least 30 other forest villages, a land grab. They say it will threaten an ancient forest at the heart of the wider Congo Basin rainforest - the world's second-largest after the Amazon.
Right now, Africa is the target of many companies hungry for forest land. An April 2012 study by the World Wildlife Fund and France's Institute for Research and Development noted that new regulations and scrutiny elsewhere are "encouraging large Asian companies to heavily invest in Central Africa."
Herakles Farms, owned by New York venture-finance firm Herakles Capital, and other food giants such as Malaysia's Sime Darby and Singapore's Olam, see the next big growth area down the west coast of Africa, from Liberia to Gabon.
The Herakles plantation is a test case for an African industry-in-the-making. Get it right and the continent could benefit. Get it wrong and Africa could see its resources consumed and its people deprived of livelihoods.
Chief Ekole has no doubt about what to do. "Is it the right of a chief to refuse light where there is darkness?" asked Ekole, ensconced in the wood-carved throne of his royal hut. "Their grievance was that I had eaten all the money alone and they would have to leave their farms ... This is completely phony."
FOOD MACHINE
The oil palm, or Elaeis guineensis, is a food-producing machine with few parallels. Give it warmth, sun and rain and it will transform soil nutrients into fatty acids more efficiently - thus more lucratively - than any rival.
The average palm plantation can generate four metric tons (1 metric ton = 1.1023 tons) of oil per hectare a year, six times the typical yield for rapeseed and 10 times that of soybeans. Small wonder it is the world's most important vegetable oil, with annual production of 50 million metric tons worth $20 billion.
Palm oil is used in everything from margarine and soap to biofuel. It is a prized dressing on dishes across West and Central Africa, and as its popularity has surged, so has its price. Malaysian palm oil now sells at around 3,000 ringgit ($940) a metric ton, triple what it cost in 2000.
Take the road from the coastal town of Limbe around the volcanic slopes of Mount Cameroon and barely a minute goes by without a new oil palm plantation.
What looks like a monolithic sea of palm is in fact a patchwork of smallholdings and larger plantations held by both the state and agro-industrial companies. Some plots date back to pre-1960 colonial rule.
Cameroon's current output of 230,000 metric tons makes it the world's 13th-largest producer. That's enough for Peter Okpo wa Namolongo, deputy mayor of Mundemba, at the southwestern tip of the Herakles plot. The last thing he wants is more palm.
"We don't lack palm oil. Shall we not also have space for our family? We have children to feed," said Namolongo. The area around his town should be left to traditional small-scale farming, hunting and fishing, he said. "We are tired of palms, palms, palms."
State firms Pamol and Cameroon Development Corporation offer jobs and homes to their workers. But their plantations limit the land available for farming and hunting. Of the land that remains, much has been protected after Cameroon and ecology-minded donors developed a network of conservation areas in the 1980s.
That network includes the Korup National Park, home of the endangered, baboon-like drill, red colobus and other primates. Korup provided the breathtaking jungle backdrop to the 1984 movie "Greystoke: The Legend of Tarzan, Lord of the Apes." It is a Pleistocene, or Ice Age, forest that by some estimates contains more biodiversity than any other spot in Africa.
For the people of Mundemba, whose town is cursed with soil too poor to sustain farming, Korup means that the only land available to them lies towards Fabe and beyond - the spot now claimed by Herakles.
Local ecology activist Nasako Besingi said protests held in June in Fabe and other villages in the concession suggest many locals do not want the plantation. At least 10 police summons have been served against opponents since late May, he said.
"Charges are very rarely pressed in the end. It is an attempt at intimidation," he complained.
Local police declined to comment. Under local law, demonstrations must have prior consent from authorities, thus protesters can be served with summons for not having permits.
WINNING CONSENT
Herakles takes such allegations seriously. The company needs the blessing of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), a Kuala Lumpur-based certification body set up in 2004 and designed to rid the industry of the forest-wrecking image it picked up in Asia.
Without the nod of the RSPO, Herakles would struggle to support its argument that it will be a model for producing palm oil in an environment-friendly way.
To get that imprint, Herakles must prove it has the locals' "free, prior and informed consent", a principle set out in the U.N. Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and adopted by the RSPO.
Herakles officials say they have conducted painstaking public consultations to explain their plan and win support for it. They point to deals made with some villages to provide drinking wells, better schools and medical clinics, and pledges to re-draw project boundaries around traditional hunting areas or shrines.
They also point to local backers such as Atem Ebako, chief of Talangaye village, where another seedlings nursery is located. Ebako plans to turn his hamlet into a "rural city" with schools and hospitals.
"We are trying to commit ourselves to transparency and respect our commitments," said Herakles Community Relations Manager Daniel Agoons.
But some encounters have been difficult.
A survey of village attitudes to the project in late 2010 was conducted with armed guards because of security concerns, a fact Herakles later acknowledged "may have influenced some of the participants in their responses."
Subsequent meetings to allow locals to comment on Herakles' environmental assessment for the project - 299 pages plus annexes - were held at the height of the rainy season last year, when roads turn to sludge.
"It was improper to organize public hearings during that period when you know people will find it difficult to get to Mundemba," said Malle Adolf, a lawyer opposed to the project.
Herakles said the hearings were scheduled by Cameroonian authorities. It says it remains ready to listen to local complaints that have not been voiced.
ENVIRONMENTAL FEARS
Environmentalists also have worries.
Herakles commissioned a report on the conservation value of its plot, which found that the "vast majority of the concession is secondary and degraded forest, with few remnant patches of primary" - or virgin - "forest."
The HCV Resource Network, a global forest-protection body funded by the World Bank and packaging giant Tetra Pak, among others, rejected the assessment as "completely inadequate" and "severely lacking in nearly every section".
Those concerns were shared in March by senior conservation academics from institutes such as Stanford University in California and Switzerland's Federal Institute of Technology, who have urged Cameroon to suspend the project. Citing satellite images and aerial photos of the Talangaye nursery in particular, the 11 scientists argued in an open letter that nearly three-quarters of the concession was covered in forest similar to Korup park.
Ecologists argue the plantation could damage Korup itself because some of the rare primates living there would lose their migration routes through the forest.
"I do not dispute the desire and need for economic development in Cameroon's South West Region," said Joshua Linder, an anthropologist at James Madison University in Virginia and a visitor to the region for 10 years. "But this is a lose-lose situation. Local people might lose their land and way of life, while the region's great biological diversity will be put in serious jeopardy."
PHILANTHROPIST'S ZEAL
From his 40th-floor office on New York's Park Avenue, Bruce Wrobel, chief executive of Herakles Farms, says he is open to criticism and will act if it is justified. But he also feels the project has been widely misunderstood.
Since a 1999 visit to West Africa during the civil wars of Sierra Leone and Liberia, Wrobel's aim has been to mix business with philanthropy in order to assist the continent.
So far Wrobel has helped cut telephone costs for millions of East Africans, he says, via his fiber-optic cable joint venture Seacom. A hydro plant run by his Sithe Global Power company in Uganda has reduced power blackouts there.
Herakles says it acquired the Cameroon concession in 2009 when U.S. asset manager Blackstone Group sold its interest after deeming the land more suitable for food than biofuels. Wrobel saw it as a chance to do business and do good at the same time.
"Our big concern is that over a relatively short period of time there will be no way for the African consumer to compete with the Chinese and the Indian buyer," he explained.
"That could lead to some of the types of instability and food riots that we saw a few years back," he said of the unrest that hit at least 14 African countries in 2007 and 2008 - in Cameroon's case at the cost of dozens of lives. Most research tied the protests to a spike in prices for more fundamental staples such as rice, wheat and maize, rather than palm oil.
Herakles plans to supply the Cameroonian market, then sell to Nigerian and other West African consumers. He puts the project's total capital costs at $550 - $600 million. The company has capital in place for "the next couple of years" and at some point will consider going public, he adds.
ROCK-BOTTOM RENT
Neither Herakles nor Cameroon have published full details of the contract they struck for the company's palm oil activities.
But a leaked 49-page document purports to be the 2009 "Establishment Convention" setting out the terms for Herakles' project.
The document sets the term of the deal at 99 years, with an annual surface rent of $0.50 per hectare for undeveloped land and $1.00 for developed land, rising by two percent a year.
That, said Samuel Nguiffo of Yaounde-based lobby group the Centre for Environment and Development, is rock-bottom of a local scale that has offered land at an average 2,500 CFA francs ($4.78) per year for logging contracts and anything up to $13 per hectare for crops such as sugar cane.
In Sierra Leone, the government's recommended rate for leasing land for palm oil is around $12.35 a hectare. Liberia is charging Sime Darby annual rent of $5 a hectare, according to a contract released by the government.
Nguiffo is also concerned about clauses in the alleged Herakles convention giving it a blanket tax exemption for the first 10 years of production and what he complains is a lack of clear commitments on wage levels.
"The project is unlikely to generate much revenue for the Cameroonian government or local people," he concluded.
The purported document bears two signature pages identical to those included in an annex to official Herakles documentation.
Herakles would not confirm the document was real and said it was bound by a confidentiality clause.
But it added that comparisons based purely on rent and tax painted a "distorted picture" by failing to take into account job creation and upgrades to local infrastructure, healthcare and schooling.
IN THE BALANCE
Backers of the project in the government of Paul Biya, Cameroon's 79-year-old president, say palm will help the country - even if it means wildlife may lose out.
"Should our people remain poor because the gorilla will fret and grow thin?" asked Caroline Mebande, technical adviser in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. "In Cameroon, we cannot put the stress of animals above the hunger of the people."
To win over environmentalists and secure RSPO certification, Herakles proposed in June to limit clearance to an initial 2,000-hectare parcel of land on which it is certain it can prove there are no conservation concerns.
The RSPO has requested that Herakles hold back from clearing more land until concerns have been settled. It has asked Herakles to work through the issues with the local country office of the World Wildlife Fund.
"We've asked the government, we've asked the company, if we can help them choose a better location. It's the heart of a biodiversity hotspot," said David Hoyle, conservation director for WWF-Cameroon. He argues that Cameroon could boost output by planting on degraded land or boosting poor local yields.
The outcome of the dispute is likely to have implications beyond the project itself: Cameroon says palm oil investors from the United States to Asia have filed requests for 1.2 million hectares of land - 20 times the Herakles plot.
($1 = 523.2790 CFA francs)
(Additional reporting by Tansa Musa in Yaounde; Simon Akam in Freetown and Alphonso Toweh in Monrovia; Editing by Sophie Walker)

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Reuters News - Global Economy Weekahead: World watches Bernanke as Ben eyes euro


U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gestures during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, June 20, 2012. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gestures during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, June 20, 2012.
Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst
LONDON | Sun Jul 15, 2012 3:07pm EDT
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke serves up a new set of clues this week that might help solve one of the thorniest riddles for the world economy: what will it take to make the U.S. central bank ease monetary policy further?
Bernanke will present his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday against a background of lackluster growth at home and a festering sovereign debt crisis in Europe that is increasingly preoccupying U.S. policymakers.
But investors will be lucky if Bernanke goes much further than the minutes released last week of the Fed's June 19-20 policy meeting. The central bank kept open the option of a third round of outright bond purchases, or quantitative easing (QE) in market jargon, if the economy took a marked turn for the worse, but appeared to set a high bar for such aggressive action.
"Right now the economic numbers are very mixed so I don't think Bernanke can make a clear, compelling commitment on QE at the current time," said David Hale, who runs a global economics consultancy in Winnetka, Illinois.
Growth might have been as soft as 1.5 percent in the second quarter, Hale said. But he also pointed to falling unemployment claims in recent weeks as well as a bounceback in auto sales and durable goods. Some forecasters were penciling in a pick-up in growth this quarter to an annual rate of 2.5 percent or 3.0 percent, he noted.
"So the situation is far too unclear," Hale said. "I think all he'll do is keep his options open and see what the economy looks like in September."
This week's batch of U.S. economic data is unlikely to tip the scales one way or the other.
The first regional industry surveys for July, from New York and Philadelphia, are forecast to show a modest improvement; retail sales for June are expected to have edged up 0.1 percent on the month; headline inflation in the year to June probably ticked down to 1.6 percent but economists see no deflationary risk that could push the Fed off the fence.
If the economy does stumble or market confidence collapses, the Fed's initial response is likely be to indicate that interest rates, now expected to stay close to zero at least through late 2014, will remain exceptionally low for even longer.
Vince Reinhart, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, believes the Fed's decision last month to buy an additional $267 billion in long-term bonds with proceeds from short-term debt - a measure known as Operation Twist - effectively puts the central bank's balance sheet on auto-pilot for the rest of the year.
"We think their first recourse will be to tweak their language about interest rates. From their perspective, a modest disappointment requires, at most, a modest policy response," Reinhart, a former senior Fed staffer himself, said in a note to clients.
EURO ZONE WOES
The wild card is the crisis enveloping the euro zone. Speaking in London last week, St Louis Fed President James Bullard listed a number of domestic impediments to U.S. growth.
"But even more pressing is the situation in Europe. The crisis is contributing to recession, adding a dragging factor on U.S. and Asian performance. There is a financial sector dimension which periodically threatens to expand into a more generalized financial crisis," Bullard said.
After Italy successfully navigated a bond auction on Friday despite a two-notch credit rating downgrade from Moody's Investors Service, the next such financial test of the euro zone comes on Thursday when Spain is due to tap the bond market.
Thanks to an agreement in principle to bail out Spanish banks to the tune of up to 100 billion euros ($122 billion)without adding to the state's debt, yields on 10-year Spanish bonds have fallen back from the 7 percent level widely deemed to be unsustainable.
Euro zone finance ministers will gather on Friday to put flesh on the bones of the Spanish deal, clinched in return for a further 65 billion euros in tax increases and spending cuts announced by Madrid last week.
Confirmation by ministers that the euro zone's rescue fund would not be paid out ahead of other creditors should Spain default would be a relief for bond investors. The losses imposed on private owners of Greek debt, while the official sector was spared, has accelerated a flight from the bonds of other heavily indebted countries such as Italy and Spain.
But many questions are likely to linger about the plan to help Spain, not least because the bailout is linked to plans for euro zone-wide supervision of the 17-nation area's biggest banks - a politically and technically fraught undertaking that will take months of preparation.
Gianluca Ziglio, an interest rate strategist at UBS, said the bank rescue was positive because Spain was relying on domestic buyers to refinance its debts.
"If you underpin your banks you are able to buy time. But in my view it will be just buying time. It's difficult to see how Spain can actually avoid a full-blown bailout," he said.
And, as Ben Bernanke knows all too well, that could touch off a financial tsunami that would hit economies far beyond Europe's shores.
(Additional reporting by Marius Zaharia; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

Monday, July 16, 2012

BBC News - Global recovery still under threat, says IMF outlook


The global economic recovery is still at risk, and eurozone economies remain in a "precarious" situation, the International Monetary Fund has said.
A protestor throws back a tear gas canister to riot police during clash in front of the Greek Parliament The IMF says the eurozone is in a 'precarious' situation
A delayed or insufficient response from European leaders to the crisis would further derail the recovery, it said.
The IMF downgraded its forecast for global growth for 2013 to 3.9% from the 4.1% prediction it made in April.
One of the biggest downward revisions was to the UK, now expected to grow by 1.4% in 2013. In April it predicted 2%.
The forecast for growth in 2012 was also reduced for the UK, down to 0.2% from the 0.8% cited in April.
The IMF's prediction for world output this year - as measured by gross domestic product - was little changed at 3.5%.
In its updated World Economic Outlook, which is published twice each year, the Washington-based lender said: "Downside risks continue to loom large, importantly reflecting risks of delayed or insufficient policy action."

IMF annual growth forecasts (% change)

Latest forecastsPrevious forecasts (April)
2012201320122013
SOURCE: IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
World output
3.5
3.9
3.5
4.1
Euro area
-0.3
0.7
-0.3
0.9
US
2.0
2.3
2.1
2.4
Japan
2.4
1.5
2.0
1.7
UK
0.2
1.4
0.8
2.0
China
8.0
8.5
8.2
8.8
Brazil
2.5
4.6
3.0
4.1
India
6.1
6.5
6.9
7.3
Russia
4.0
3.9
4.0
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'Precarious situation'
The euro area will remain in a "precarious" situation unless leaders take further action to avoid the sovereign debt crisis from escalating and prevent a market meltdown, the report said.
"The utmost priority is to resolve the crisis in the euro area," said the report.
The 17-member eurozone economy is expected to contract by 0.3% this year before rebounding by 0.7% next year.
The IMF, along with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Union, has demanded austerity measures in the struggling periphery economies of Greece, Spain and Portugal in return for bailouts.
The crisis has led millions of people to lose their jobs and benefits. There were also concerns that runs on bank deposits would trigger a eurozone-wide bank run and banking crisis.
Europe must be committed towards forging a "complete" monetary integration by pursuing a banking and fiscal union, said the IMF.
Recently, eurozone leaders agreed to bail out Spanish banks directly and unveiled a plan to implement a fiscal and banking unification. But the proposals for such a decision will not become concrete until later this year, and it is not yet known how long it will take for such a union to take shape.
The ECB last week cut its benchmark lending rate below 1% for the first time, to 0.75%.
But the IMF called on the central bank to use more unorthodox monetary tools, such as providing the region's banks with additional unlimited loans, or long-term refinancing operations (LTROs).
A similar move last December helped to calm markets and brought down crucial borrowing costs for struggling economies.
However, the effects have waned in recent weeks as eurozone efforts to solve the crisis failed to shore up investor confidence.
US deadlock
The IMF also urged US lawmakers to solve a deadlock on how to deal with a "fiscal cliff" - which refers to a set of fiscal deadlines at the end of the year, including deciding whether to extend tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.
"If policymakers fail to reach consensus on extending some temporary tax cuts and reversing deep automatic spending cuts, the US structural fiscal deficit could decline by more than four percentage points of GDP in 2013," the IMF warned.
"US growth would then stall next year, with significant spillovers to the rest of the world."
The US economy is expected to grow by 2.0% this year and 2.3% in 2013.
Overall, growth in advanced economies is projected to expand by 1.4% this year and 1.9% the following year, the IMF now predicts.
Emerging market power
Growth in emerging economies was also revised downwards. They are now forecast to see growth slow down to 5.6% in 2012 before picking up to 5.9%, the IMF report said.
Growth momentum dropped particularly in Brazil, China and India, considered to be the drivers of a global recovery.
That was aggravated by risk aversion among investors who pulled out their money out of these economies, causing domestic share prices to tumble.
But developing economies are being supported by a number of government measures to shore up growth, as well as lower oil prices, said the IMF.
One of the rare bright spots for the global economy is inflation, which is expected to ease as demand and commodity prices, including oil, weaken.