Friday, July 17, 2015

Bloomberg News - Why Argentina Consistently, and Unapologetically, Refuses to Pay Its Debts

ARGENTINA FOREIGN DEBT MUSEUM
A visitor at the Museum of Foreign Debt in Buenos Aires. To the right is an image of former president Carlos Menem, whose efforts to control inflation produced a heavy debt load for the country.

Argentina’s fight with foreign banks and bondholders is more than just business. It’s part of the national psyche, enshrined in a special museum at the business school at the University of Buenos Aires. The Museum of Foreign Debt is nothing fancy. There are a few flimsy panels plastered with grainy photos, dates, text, and graphs.
Oh, but the saga portrayed on those panels! Banks, bond investors, and the International Monetary Fund flood crooked regimes with overpriced credit. The Argentine economy collapses, and the people suffer. International markets are roiled. It happens time and time again. The story has all the emotions of a good tango.
Argentina has reneged on foreign debt obligations at least seven times, starting in 1827. The latest was in July 2014, when Argentina defaulted rather than give in to pressure from Paul Singer of Elliott Management. The fight with Singer has been going on for a dozen years, and the term vulture investor—rather esoteric in much of the world—is now pretty much universally known in Argentina. It’s so much on people’s minds that Buenos Aires toy stores carry a homegrown board game called Vultures, packaged in a box depicting a pair of the birds picking at a pile of dollars. “We planted the anti-vulture flag in the world,” President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner said in a speech in mid-May. “We gave a name to international usury and despotism.”
One May morning at the debt museum, guide Antonella Fagnano, a 21-year-old business major, describes Argentines’ attitude toward default. She pauses by a black-and-white photo of the late General Jorge Videla, who led a 1976 coup that ushered in a seven-year dictatorship. Successive presidents in that period loaded up on foreign debt to finance, among other things, the 1982 Falklands War with the U.K.
Today’s Argentina, Fagnano says, has no moral obligation to make good on debts like those. In fact, it would be wrong to pay. “Foreigners financed a lot of leaders, like these dictators. They didn’t do what they were supposed to do with the money, and left future generations the debt,” she says, shaking her head. “So, of course, you cannot allow that.”
Fernandez is nearing the end of her term, and it doesn't look like things will change under the next president. Daniel Scioli, the front-runner for October elections, vows to carry on the fight against paying the vultures in full. 

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Reuters News - Greek parliament approves bailout measures as Syriza fragments

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (R) sits next to Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos (C) during a parliamentary session in Athens, Greece July 16, 2015.
REUTERS/CHRISTIAN HARTMANN
The Greek parliament passed sweeping austerity measures demanded by lenders to open talks on a new multibillion-euro bailout package to keep Greece in the euro, but dozens of hardliners in the ruling Syriza party deserted Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.
The package was approved with 229 votes in the 300-seat chamber. There were 64 votes against it and six abstentions. But Tsipras required the support of pro-European opposition parties to push the measure through, leaving a question over the future of his government.
Tsipras said there was no alternative to the package, which he acknowledged would cause hardship, but he stood by the decision. "I am the last person to shirk this responsibility," he told parliament.
Government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis acknowledged the vote laid bare a split in Syriza, but he said the government's priority was to secure the bailout, suggesting that there would be no immediate move towards new elections.
In exchange for funding worth up to 86 billion euros ($94 billion), Greece has accepted reforms including significant pension adjustments, increases to value added taxes, an overhaul of its collective bargaining system, measures to liberalize its economy and tight limits on public spending.
It has also agreed to sequester 50 billion euros of public assets in a special privatization fund to act as collateral on the deal.
The measures were branded "social genocide" by the firebrand speaker of parliament Zoe Constantopoulou and there were violent clashes between protestors and police outside parliament as the debate went on before the vote.
Among the 38 Syriza rebels was former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, who was sacked by Tsipras last week and who denounced the bailout deal as "a new Versailles Treaty" - the agreement that demanded unaffordable reparations from Germany after its defeat in World War One.
Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and Deputy Labor Minister Dimitris Stratoulis also voted against the package.
Amid speculation that both ministers could lose their jobs in a reshuffle, possibly as early as Thursday, Lafazanis said he remained loyal to the government but was ready to offer his resignation, joining Deputy Finance Minister Nadia Valavani, who stepped down earlier on Wednesday.
"We support Syriza in government and we support the Prime Minister. We don't support the bailout," he said after the vote.
Elected in January on an anti-austerity platform, Tsipras made an about-turn following grueling all-night negotiations in Brussels on Monday, giving in to lenders' demands for immediate reforms to prevent a chaotic exit from the single currency.
Speaking in parliament before the vote, Tsipras made clear he was supporting the package against his will but there was no alternative if Greece was to avoid financial collapse.
"I acknowledge the fiscal measures are harsh, that they won't benefit the Greek economy, but I'm forced to accept them," he said as he made a final appeal for support.
"A NEW VERSAILLES TREATY"
With Greek parliamentary approval secured, the way has been cleared for other national parliaments to approve the start of bailout talks and for the release of funding to allow Greek banks to re-open, more than two weeks after capital controls were imposed to prevent them from collapsing.
Eurozone finance ministers are due to hold a conference call on Thursday at 10 a.m. (0800 GMT) to discuss the vote.
With Greece facing an urgent deadline on July 20, when a 3.5 billion euro payment to the European Central Bank is due, EU officials raced to agree a bridge financing accord that would enable Athens to avoid defaulting on the loan.
Despite strong objections from Britain and the Czech Republic - EU countries that do not use the euro - a 7 billion euro loan is expected to be extended to Greece from the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM), an EU-wide fund not intended for euro zone funding needs.
Given the hurdles facing the agreement, doubts have surfaced about how long it could hold together, with one senior European Union official saying it had a "20-, maybe 30-percent chance of success".
After its deepest crisis since World War Two, the Greek economy has lost more than a quarter of its output and more than one in four of its workforce is unemployed. It is unclear how it can sustain the burden of one of the most far-reaching austerity programs ever imposed on a euro zone country.
A study by the International Monetary Fund issued on Tuesday called for much more debt relief than Greece's euro zone creditors, particularly Germany, have been prepared to accept so far.
Berlin, which along with the other creditors knew about the IMF study before agreeing to new bailout talks, may wince at providing huge debt relief to a country it scarcely trusts to honor its promises.
But Germany insists on having the IMF in the negotiations to help keep Greece in line. It may countenance extending repayment periods for Greek debt but has said it will not accept a writedown, with the finance ministry insisting it could not accept "a debt haircut via the backdoor".
"EUROPE'S BANKRUPT CHILD"
The European Commission published its own assessment of Greece's debt burden on Wednesday that also offered the prospect of debt relief. While ruling out any write-offs, the Commission said debt reprofiling was possible, as long as Greece implemented the reforms to which it has agreed.
Washington has stepped up pressure for a deal between the euro zone and NATO member Greece. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is making a short-notice trip to Frankfurt, Berlin and Paris this week to press for a quick agreement.
Although the bailout package is much tougher than the Greek people could have imagined when they resoundingly rejected a previous offer from the creditors in a referendum on July 5, most want to keep the euro.
With banks shut and the threat of a calamitous exit from the currency bloc hovering over the country if it cannot conclude a deal, many Greeks see the package as the lesser of two evils.
"We are Europe's bankrupt child and as a child, Europe has been supporting us for five years and told us what we needed to do to get out of this situation," said Yannis Theodosis, a 35-year-old civil engineer. "We did nothing and now we are paying the consequences."
Civil servants held a strike on Wednesday, as did pharmacists, whose industry would be opened up under the reform package, in demonstrations that passed peacefully until a small group threw petrol bombs at police, who responded with tear gas and flash bombs.
Calm later returned but nearby streets were empty and garbage bins were still burning. About 30 people were detained, according to a police source.
ATHENS 

(Additional reporting by Gina Kalovyrna, George Georgiopoulos, Ingrid Melander, Karolina Tagaris, Michele Kambas in Athens, Alastair Macdonald and Jan Strupczewski in Brussels,Madeline ChambersCaroline Copley in Berlin, Mark John and Yann Le Guernigou in Paris, William James in London, David Gaffen in New York; Writing by Matthias Williamsand James Mackenzie; Editing by Philippa FletcherPeter GraffDavid StampToni Reinhold)

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

BBC News - China's 7% second quarter growth beats expectations

Growth in the world's second largest economy, China, beat expectations in the second quarter, but it was still the weakest showing since the global financial crisis.
Chinese factory workerChina's growth in the second quarter was steady, staying at the same level as the previous three months
The economy grew 7% from a year ago - matching growth in the first three months of the year, which was the lowest since 2009 when it fell to 6.6%.
A weaker property market and factory production have hampered growth.
But, Beijing has rolled out a series of stimulus measures amid the slowdown.
The central bank cut interest rates for the fourth time since November last month to boost economic activity.
Economists are, however, continuing to call for more easing despite the better-than-expected numbers as volatility in the stock markets has sparked concerns offinancial turmoil in the country.
Growth was expected to dip below the 7% mark and come in at 6.9% for the April to June quarter.
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Media captionThe BBC's John Sudworth on the human cost of slowing growth

Analysis - John Sudworth, BBC News, Shanghai correspondent

Sure, the data may well be massaged, manipulated and to some extent made up.
And critics of the whole concept will argue that attempting to sum up three months' worth of Chinese economic growth in a single number is as futile as trying to sum up the political events of the past three months in a single word.
But if seen as simply the best estimate that China feels comfortable publishing then it is useful, both in terms of the trend and in terms of what it may tell us about government thinking.
The 7% figure is certainly confirmation that growth remains flat at best, unchanged since the first quarter, but coming in slightly above what many had been expecting, could it be a little more rose-tinted than usual?
A point or two added as perhaps another stock-market boosting measure?
Of course, it's too early to tell if those market woes are yet impacting the wider economy. Except, analysts suggest, in one small but surprising way; second quarter growth may actually have been boosted slightly by the huge brokerage fees earned on all that frantic, panicked trading.
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Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC expects more fiscal and monetary easing in the coming months in order for China to achieve sustainable growth.
"Stimulus measures rolled out over the past nine months are beginning to show some traction. But work remains to be done," he told the BBC. "The sell-off in the stock market will likely necessitate further easing in the coming months."
The mainland's benchmark index, the Shanghai Composite, had lost almost a third of its value in the three weeks from mid-June.
The positive growth figures failed to excite investors with the index down 2.4% to 3,830.49 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was lower by 0.5% to 24,995.95.
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Shanghai shares are down some 20% from its peak in mid-June
On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.7% from April to June, compared to the 1.4% revised figure in the first quarter.
The government has also had to respond to suggestions that the better data may have been "inflated".
The National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday that the data reflecting the positive changes in the economy was "hard won", and accurate.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics said that while actual growth is "almost certainly" a percentage point or two slower than the official figures show, it does point to signs of a stabilising economy.
"More broadly, with the drag from the structural slowdown in property and heavy industry now easing, we think that growth is on track to slow only gradually over the course of the next few years," he said in a note.
Industrial production and retail sales in June were all above forecasts, while fixed-asset investment, a major driver of the economy, also beat expectations in the period.

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Reuters News - Iran, big powers clinch landmark nuclear deal: Iranian diplomats

German Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier (L), French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius (2ndL), Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (4thL), EU Deputy Secretary General for the External Action Service Helga Schmid (8thL), European Union High Representative for Foreign...
REUTERS/LEONHARD FOEGER
Iran and six major world powers have reached a nuclear deal after more than a decade of on-off negotiation, granting Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, Iranian diplomats said on Tuesday.
The agreement aims to limit Iran's nuclear work for more than a decade in exchange for the gradual suspension of sanctions that have slashed Iran's oil exports and crippled its economy.
"All the hard work has paid off and we sealed a deal. God bless our people," one diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity. A second Iranian official confirmed the agreement.
The foreign ministers of Iran and the six powers will meet at 0830 GMT (4.30 a.m. ET) at the United Nations center in Vienna and a news conference will follow, a spokeswoman for the European Union said on Tuesday.
Iran's Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and E.U.'s Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini are expected to read a joint statement, diplomats said.
Under a draft version of the nuclear deal, sketched out in preliminary form on April 2, U.N. inspectors would have access to all suspect Iranian sites, including military ones, a diplomatic source said.
The foreign ministers of Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States met for about an hour just after midnight as they struggled to complete the agreement, which has been under negotiation for more than 20 months.
The accord could mark a watershed in Tehran's relations with Western nations, which suspect that Iran has used its civil nuclear program as a cover to develop a nuclear weapons capability. Iran denies this.
Among the biggest sticking points in the past week was Iran's insistence that a United Nations Security Council arms embargo and ban on its ballistic missile program dating from 2006 be lifted immediately if an agreement is reached.
Russia, which sells weapons to Iran, has publicly supported Tehran on the issue.
Western nations are loathe to allow Iran to buy and sell arms freely, fearing this would permit it to increase its military support to Shi'ite militias in Iraq, Houthi militants in Yemen and President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Another major stumbling block was the so-called "snapback" plan to restore the sanctions if Iran violates the deal. It was not immediately clear how those issues were finessed in the final agreement.
Other problematic issues include access for inspectors to military sites in Iran, explanations from Tehran of past activity that might have been aimed at developing a nuclear weapon and the overall speed of sanctions relief.
    The diplomatic source said that a U.N. Security Council resolution on it would ideally be adopted in July and steps to be taken by both sides – including Iranian limitations on its nuclear program and relief from sanctions on Iran – would be implemented in the first half of 2016.
    The information from the source was preliminary and subject to change because it was based on a draft not the final version that could be amended before final approval by Iran and the six powers.
The source said Iran and the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency have agreed a plan to address outstanding questions about the possible military dimensions of past Iranian nuclear activity by the end of 2015, noting that some sanctions relief would be subject to Tehran resolving this issue.
The plan includes one visit to the Parchin military site as well as possible interviews with Iranian nuclear scientists, the source noted.
The marathon ministerial-level nuclear negotiations went on for more than two weeks in Vienna.

(Additional reporting by Shadia Nasralla; Editing by Louise Ireland)

Monday, July 13, 2015

Bloomberg News - Tsipras Moves From Predator to Prey at Euro 'Torture' Summit


Alexis Tsipras
Alexis Tsipras and Euclid Tsakalotos depart following all-night bailout talks in Brussels, on July 13. Photographer: Jasper Juinen/Bloomberg

The latest save-the-euro summit turned into open season on Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.
Leaders from German Chancellor Angela Merkel on down fretted about the “trust” shattered by Tsipras during more than five months in power, which was the European way of saying that the anti-austerity populist has got to go.
Creditor governments essentially ordered Tsipras, once a Communist youth activist, to convert to unquestioned capitalism to earn aid of as much as 86 billion euros ($95 billion) and keep Greece in the euro.
“The Greek government has accepted practically everything,” Prime Minister Joseph Muscat of Malta said in an interview after the overnight marathon. “It accepted all the crucial and important points.”
Two officials who observed Tsipras at the Brussels showdown independently described him as a “beaten dog” whose only remaining option was to submit to the creditors’ will, carving out a concession here and there. Tsipras fretted privately about the reception that awaits him in Athens.
Under fire at home, Tsipras pulled off minor tactical victories, notably by retaining a measure of Greek control over a privatization fund that would raise up to 50 billion euros by selling state assets -- a target that proved unreachable in prior bailouts.
Tsipras juggled the face-to-face confrontations with phone calls to Syriza party faithful back home, telling the European leaders that he intended to take action against anyone who rebels against his sudden decision to bow to the outside economic forces.

Unity Coalition

The question in Athens will be whether Tsipras brings Greece’s mainstream parties into a national unity coalition and stays on to run it, or quits to escape the political blame for enacting the drastic budget cuts he denounced for so long.
Whatever his personal fate, Greece has to pass a range of previously unpalatable measures by Wednesday to maintain the prospect of more financing. Tsipras’s other option would be to keep the current government lineup, stonewall the creditors and head for the euro exit.
“Trust has to be rebuilt, the Greek authorities have to take on responsibility for what they agreed to politically here,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.

Bridge Too Far

Some hardliners felt Greece was let off too easily. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte feared the crumbling of his coalition and Finnish Prime Minister Juha Sipila argued that starting talks on the third bailout would be a bridge too far.
European frustration spilled over at the sense of being doublecrossed two summits ago, on June 26, when Tsipras appeared to converge on the creditors’ terms, only to change his mind on his return flight and call a referendum to reject them.
The popular vote produced Tsipras’s desired outcome, until a European ultimatum combined with Greece’s shuttered banks and widening economic distress to persuade him that maybe the German-led bloc of financiers was offering a better deal after all.
The result, at a summit running 17 hours until 9 a.m. on Monday, was more of an inquisition than a negotiation.
“We found ourselves in front of difficult decisions and hard dilemmas,” Tsipras told reporters at the end. “We took the responsibility of the decision to avert the most extreme plans of the most extreme conservative forces in the European Union.”

Ringed by Crises

The ground was prepared earlier Saturday and Sunday, when finance ministers -- whose job is to make numbers add up, not to ruminate about Greece’s geopolitical status in a Europe ringed by crises -- put the possibility of a Greek exit from the euro on paper for the first time.
It didn’t matter that the German-inspired reference to a possible “time-out from the euro area” was in brackets, indicating that the passage was still in dispute. The point was that the threat to expel Greece had muscled its way into the official documentation, however briefly.
The new Greek minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, played by the technocratic etiquette that was alien to his predecessor, Yanis Varoufakis, who labeled the creditors’ budget-slashing zeal “terrorism.” Now, a French official said, the bad faith came from the creditors’ side.
Once the leaders arrived, the biggest barbs came from the smallest countries. While Merkel was her inscrutable self, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico asserted “a moral right to be very hard on Greece. The Greeks would do best if they left the euro zone on their own, did their homework and then tried to come back. This is just torture for everybody.”

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Bloomberg News - Who Blew Up China’s Stock Bubble?

Beijing urged people to buy stocks. Now it’s begging them to stop selling
CHINA STOCK MARKET
In China, red indicates rising stock prices.
 
Source: Corbis
In China, the invisible hand of the market sometimes needs help from the iron fist of the state. That’s certainly true after a meltdown vaporized $3.5 trillion in the value of shares traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.
President Xi Jinping’s government isn’t being subtle in its campaign to reflate the bubble it had a big role in creating. The government has suspended initial public offerings and eased rules on margin loans, even allowing investors to use their homes as collateral to borrow money to buy stocks. On June 27, the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark interest rate and the amount of reserves certain banks are required to hold. Days later, it offered financial support to a group of 21 brokerages that have pledged to buy 120 billion yuan ($19.3 billion) worth of shares and hold them for a year. On July 8, China’s securities regulator banned major company shareholders (those with stakes exceeding 5 percent), corporate executives, and directors from selling their shares for six months.
So far, the government’s moves have had little impact. Since peaking on June 12, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen almost 32 percent, dropping more than 5 percent on some days. The selling pressure in China has been so severe that on July 8, about 1,300 companies halted trading in their stocks on mainland exchanges, freezing $2.6 trillion worth of shares, or 40 percent of the stock market capitalization. On July 7, Hong Kong followed the mainland exchanges into bear market territory.
The stock market rout, the worst mainland market slump since 1992, has been an embarrassment to Xi and Premier Li Keqiang, who have vowed to push through more than 300 reforms aimed at reducing state intervention and letting market forces play a bigger role in China’s $10 trillion economy.
As Chinese stocks made a 150 percent run from July 2014 through June 12, state-controlled media both urged individual investors to buy and characterized the stock boom as an affirmation of Xi’s policies. “This is a real testing moment for the leadership,” says Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of Renmin University’s School of Finance. “The evaporation of fortunes of more than 80 million individual investors would pose unthinkable social problems for the country.”
Then there’s the risk that the stock market bust will complicate efforts to bail out the country’s heavily indebted property developers, corporations, and local governments. A credit binge and supercharged spending on infrastructure and housing delivered 10 percent annual economic growth from 1980 to 2012. Now the economy has decelerated to about 7 percent annual growth and is awash in debt. Government, corporate, and household borrowing totaled $28 trillion as of mid-2014, or about 282 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, according to McKinsey.
A thriving stock market figured into Xi’s bigger effort to steer China away from its reliance on bank lending and develop a diversified financial sector with vibrant equity and bond markets to fuel growth. There’s been some progress. Most interest rates, except for the benchmark deposit rate, are now set by market forces, and Xi’s drive to root out government corruption continues to roll ahead.
A trading link was established last year between the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges to allow foreigners greater access to Chinese stocks. In a country where Mao Zedong once derided market-leaning party members as “capitalist roaders,” there are today more individual stock investors, 90 million, than Communist Party members.
CHINA STOCK
Source: Corbis
Unleashing market forces is what Western economists and the International Monetary Fund have long prescribed, but Minxin Pei, a government professor at Claremont McKenna College, says another agenda may be at work. Beijing goosed the stock market to shore up public support in a slowing economy and give debt-burdened companies a lifeline to equity financing, he says. Chinese companies have raised $72 billion this year in initial and secondary stock offerings, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “Many companies that should go out of business have tapped the stock market for funds,” Pei says.
At the mid-June high, shares on the Shanghai Composite Index were three times more expensive than any of the world’s top 10 markets based on estimated earnings. Even after the recent plunge, the median valuation of stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges is almost triple that of the companies listed on the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. Margin account balances, a measure of shares bought with borrowed money, are still sizable at 1.05 trillion yuan as of July 8, according to the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
So far the government-led rescue mission has mostly helped prop up the shares of mainly big state-owned enterprises such as PetroChina, China Merchants Bank, and China Southern Airlines. Selling in the broader market, particularly with small-cap stocks, remains relentless. The CSI Smallcap 500 index is down more than 40 percent since June 12.
The government’s cheerleading as stocks rose—and heavy-handed response when they collapsed—has hurt its credibility with global investors. “This saga shows that the leadership has not dealt with financial reform and liberalization well so far,” says Liu Li-Gang, chief China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. And even if the rescue mission works, Claremont McKenna’s Pei says China will succeed only in postponing a necessary and painful corporate reckoning: “The cleanup bill will be much bigger,” he says.
Ultimately, Xi’s government may be making a common mistake among novice investors: doubling down on a losing trade. “The more resources authorities commit to propping up the stock market, the more they ratchet up the potential fallout risks should the market continue to collapse,” says Andrew Wood, an analyst at BMI Research. The government-controlled media, ever optimistic, continues to make the case for buying shares. “Rainbows always appear after rains,” said a recent editorial by the People’s Daily, the voice of the Communist Party of China.
At least one Western investment bank agrees. Kinger Lau, China strategist at Goldman Sachs, predicts the large-cap CSI 300 index will rally 27 percent over the next 12 months. “China’s government has a lot of tools to support the market,” Lau says. “We are still positive.”
—With Jonathan Burgos
The bottom line: With Chinese stock prices down 32 percent since June 12, Beijing is scrambling to prop up the market.