BBC News - New pound coin: Firms told to prepare for redesign

Businesses should get ready now for the introduction of the new 12-sided pound coin, the Treasury has said.

A new website is urging firms to adapt their equipment and train their staff in preparation for the arrival of the new coin in March 2017.

All machines accepting cash, whether it's in exchange for a rail ticket or a chocolate bar, will have to be updated.

But for a six-month transitional period businesses will need to find ways to accept both the old and new coins.

After that the existing round pound coin will be phased out.

The website, hosted by the Royal Mint, suggests that businesses should check before March whether any of their cash handling equipment needs updating, and make sure machines that take payment in coins can handle both the old and the new versions.

They should also consider training their staff "on the features of the new £1 coin", it says.

The new coin is being introduced because approximately one in 30 pound coins currently in circulation is a fake, according to the Royal Mint and the new coins are designed to be harder to counterfeit.

"The new £1 coin will be the most secure of its kind in the world and its cutting-edge features will present a significant barrier to counterfeiters, reducing the cost to businesses and the taxpayer," said David Gauke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

Why the new coin is more secure

• 12-sided - its distinctive shape means it stands out by sight and by touch
• Bimetallic - The outer ring is gold coloured (nickel-brass) and the inner ring is silver coloured (nickel-plated alloy).
• Latent image - it has an image like a hologram that changes from a '£' symbol to the number '1' when the coin is seen from different angles.
• Micro-lettering - around the rim on the heads side of the coin tiny lettering reads: ONE POUND. On the tails side you can find the year the coin was produced
• Milled edges - it has grooves on alternate sides.
• Hidden high security feature - an additional security feature is built into the coin to protect it from counterfeiting but details have not been revealed.

---

During the "co-circulation" period the website suggests firms should accept both coins and keep customers informed which coins their equipment can accept. Businesses may need to agree with their bank or cash in transit (CIT) provider how to return the current £1 coin and new £1 coin.

After Autumn 2017 businesses should no longer accept the existing round coin from customers and should no longer distribute it themselves. However it will still be possible to deposit the old coins at most High Street banks and the Post Office.

BBC News - Manufacturing exports boosted by pound

Manufacturing exports have received a significant boost from the weakness of sterling, according to the the latest report from the CBI.

The Industrial Trends Survey showed that export volumes grew that their fastest pace for two and a half years in the three months to October.

The pound has fallen by nearly a fifth against the dollar since the EU referendum at the end of June.

Export orders are expected to rise further over the next three months.

However, manufacturers are worried about a potential shortage of skills. Nearly a quarter of the 459 firms which responded to the CBI survey said that "skilled labour availability" could limit output over the next few months.

"Manufacturers are optimistic about export prospects and export orders are growing, following the fall in sterling," said Rain Newton-Smith, CBI chief economist.

"However, the weaker pound is also feeding through to costs, which are rising briskly and may well spill over into higher consumer prices in the months ahead.

"Access to skills clearly remains a high priority, so manufacturers will be looking to the government to implement a new migration system that meets the needs of business while responding to clearly-stated public concerns.

"Maintaining a preferential route between the UK and the EU, our largest trading partner, will be important," she added.

Both manufacturing output and orders grew over the quarter.

Negative impact

However, the sharp depreciation in sterling has had its downside. Unit costs, pushed up by an increase in import prices, rose at the fastest pace in three years and are expected to carry on increasing in the next three months.

There has also been some "modest" domestic price inflation, as firms tried to pass on some of the cost increases to their customers.

So despite increased export demand and competitiveness not all companies felt that the fall in sterling had been good for them.

Of the 231 manufacturers who submitted an answer, 47% said the fall in sterling since June had had a negative impact on their businesses, while 32% said it had a positive impact and 19% said the effect was neutral.

'Clarity'

Looking to the three months to the end of December orders, both domestic and export, are predicted to increase.

However, more respondents expect employment to decline than expect it to rise before the end of the year.

The CBI says companies will be looking to next month's Autumn Statement by the chancellor of the exchequer for further details on long-term industrial strategy.

"Ultimately, all businesses need greater clarity from the Government on the fundamental issues of skills and barrier-free access to EU markets as soon as possible," said Ms Newton-Smith.

Reuters News - Belgium breaks deadlock over EU-Canada trade pact

Minister-President of Wallonia Paul Magnette arrives at a meeting on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a planned EU-Canada free trade agreement, at the Lambermont Residence in Brussels, Belgium, October 27, 2016. REUTERS/Yves Herman

By Robert-Jan Bartunek | BRUSSELS

Belgium agreed a deal with its regional parliaments on Thursday to approve a landmark EU-Canada free trade agreement, breaking a deadlock that has blocked the pact for weeks.

Prime Minister Charles Michel said the heads of the regions had drawn up an addendum to the agreement that answered their concerns over the rights of farmers and governments - an addendum that still needs the approval of Canada and other EU states.

Canada called the announcement a "positive development", a cautious welcome echoed by European Council President Donald Tusk, who chairs EU leaders' summits.

But both stopped short of declaring the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a done deal.

"Only once all procedures are finalised for EU signing CETA, will I contact (Canadian) PM @JustinTrudeau," Tusk said in a tweet.

All 28 EU governments back CETA, which supporters say could increase trade by 20 percent, but Belgium had been prevented from giving its consent because of objections led by its French-speaking Wallonia region.

Wallonia, along with the capital Brussels and Belgium's grouping of French speakers, had opposed the deal for weeks, saying it was bad for Europe's farmers and gave too much power to global corporate interests.

Belgium's Prime Minister Michel did not give detail on Thursday on how Wallonia's concerns had been allayed in the addendum. But the premier of the Flemish region, Geert Bourgeois, said the original 1,598-page text of the trade deal stood.

"This is a clarification, the actual treaty does not change," he said

Failure to strike a deal with such a like-minded country as Canada would have called into question the EU's ability to forge other deals and damage credibility already battered by Britain's vote to leave the bloc and disputes over the migration crisis.

Canada's trade minister Chrystia Freeland, who walked out of talks in Walloon capital Namur last Friday, had asked, if the EU could not do a deal with Canada, who could it do a deal with.

"I'm sorry for all other Europeans and our Canadian partners that they had to wait, but what we managed to get here is important not just for Wallonia but for all of Europe," said Paul Magnette, Socialist premier of the Walloon region who has led opposition to the deal.

He said the Belgian deal meant the trade agreement would be one that set clear rules on the global economic order.

"We want to regulate the market, we want to protect citizens, for that we fought, and I think it was worth it because we were heard."

(Additional reporting by Philip Blenkinsop; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Andrew Heavens)

BBC News - China plenum: Looking for clues on China's economy

Food for thought? What comes out of China's Communist Party plenums is often limited

China's top Communist party officials are in Beijing for a four-day, behind-closed-doors meeting this week.

The plenum kicks off a big year for China, building up to next year's party congress, a twice-a-decade event.

While this week's gathering is largely pre-scripted, a communiqué is usually released at the end of event - and that should help the outside world figure out which way China is headed.

Political considerations - especially party leadership, succession issues and a "code of conduct" for party cadres - are likely to dominate proceedings. But here are three things I'm watching for on the economic front:

Anti-corruption drive

A recent Pew poll showed that corrupt officials are the top concern of Chinese people. So the key theme of this meeting - discipline - is an issue close to the hearts of many in China.

Cracking down on corruption, both within the party and in business circles, has been key to President Xi Jinping's reform agenda. It's thought that more than a million officials have been punished in his anti-corruption drive over almost four years.

But critics say that arresting individuals is the easy bit and that President Xi has done little to get to the root of the problem. There have been no meaningful moves towards regulation or systems that allow whistle-blowing for example they argue.

Analysts say President Xi believes that the only way for him to realise his "China Dream" (his vision of China's economic and military rejuvenation) is if the Chinese Communist party remains disciplined, and graft-free. Of course, the anti-corruption drive has also had a knock-on effect on the economy: there's been less spending in provinces than in previous years because of fears that excessive wealth might bring with it unnecessary and unwanted attention.

State-owned enterprises

As Michael Clauss the German Ambassador to China wrote in a recent editorial in the South China Morning Post, "it is hard to hide…[the] disappointment" when it comes to opening up China to non-state competition.

State-owned enterprises dominate China's business landscape, and that makes it very difficult for other firms - both local and foreign - to compete.

China has consistently said it is cleaning up the so-called "zombie" firms but it has so far been unwilling or unable to shut down many of these bloated companies.

Part of the reason is unemployment. The slowdown in the steel and iron sectors means we've already seen massive job losses, resulting in millions of migrant workers heading back to their villages. The Communist Party doesn't want to risk the social instability that may arise from widespread rural joblessness.

Are we still rebalancing?

Which brings us back to the whole rebalancing thesis which China started spouting a few years ago to explain its gradual, managed slowdown.

The idea was that China needed to rein in growth after years of double-digit GDP data. And it was going to be a controlled deceleration, as the economy shifted gears and changed focus to keep growing.

Under that vision, old pillars of the economy like manufacturing, exports and government spending become less central, with consumption and services having a greater emphasis. The problem though is that that's not what the data is showing.

While consumption is picking up - it's still largely debt that's helping to drive the economy forward. The central bank has already warned about high levels of credit, especially in the property market, as I've written about before.

All of these considerations will weigh heavily on the minds of China's leaders this week. And even though we're unlikely to hear what China's leaders really think about the shift in the economic focus, the communiqué released later this week might just give us some clues.

Karishma VaswaniAsia business correspondent

Reuters News - World Stocks, commodities climb as economic confidence lifts

People walk through the lobby of the London Stock Exchange in London, Britain August 25, 2015. REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett/File photo - RTSKZK9

By Marc Jones | LONDON

World markets had a swagger about them on Tuesday as upbeat economic data and signs of a revival in inflation pushed up stocks and commodity prices and kept the dollar at a nine-month high.

Factory surveys in the United States and Europe had boasted the best readings of the year so far on Monday and a six-month high for Japanese stocks in Tokyo [.T] overnight had followed a record close for the tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq. [.N]

European markets started with Germany's Dax .GDAXI nudging its highest level of the year as the closely-watch Ifo sentiment survey beat expectations a day after purchasing manager numbers had done the same.

The region's mining firms .SXPP were the standout performers though as they hit a 14-month top as zinc surged to a five-year peak and iron ore reached its highest since mid-2014, all of which should pick up the pulse of inflation globally.

"We are seeing a pick up of economic activity against the backdrop of only one central bank -- the Fed -- that is likely to tighten policy and that is supporting asset markets," said CMC Markets senior analyst Michael Hewson.

In the foreign exchange markets, the dollar .DXY took a breather having reached its highest since early February against other top currencies as traders continued to add to the bets on a December U.S. interest rate rise <0#FF:>. [/FRX]

China's yuan CHH=D3 went the other way, hitting its lowest since 'offshore' trading was introduced in 2010 as Beijing nudged down official rates again [CNY=PBOC].

It traded as soft as 6.7882 yuan per dollar. The currency's fall of more than 1.5 percent since the end of September has prompted renewed suspicion of a possible extended slide in the yuan, even though officials have reiterated their expectations for a stable currency.

But the weakness has revived memories of a shock yuan devaluation last August and another rapid depreciation early this year - falls that triggered a bout of global market turmoil.

But analysts pointed out that during this round of yuan weakness, global risk sentiment was holding up.

"That highlights the extent to which dollar gains are unlikely to be as extended as they were (in the past)," said BNP Paribas currency strategist Sam Lynton-Brown, in London.

GOLDEN MINERS

The cheer around the mining sector increased as a production update pushed up London-listed giant Anglo American's shares (AAL.L) up over 3 percent to take their gains this year to almost 270 percent.

The staggering rise has made Anglo the top performing stock on Europe's STOXX 600 this year.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei .N225 rose 0.7 percent to levels last seen in April as a softening yen burnished the outlook for the country's exporters. Australian stocks added 0.6 percent and Taiwan.TWII 0.7 percent.

Wall Street had taken encouragement from upbeat corporate results. Over one third of U.S. companies have now reported and 80 percent have beaten market expectations.

Another third of the S&P 500 components are scheduled to report earnings this week, including heavyweights Apple (AAPL.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Amazon (AMZN.O) and Boeing (BA.N).

Merger and acquisition activity added extra fizz in the wake of AT&T Inc's (T.N) $85.4 billion bid for Time Warner Inc (TWX.N), though the deal seemed destined to face stringent scrutiny from regulators.

In commodities, oil prices dipped on news of the impending restart of Britain's Buzzard oilfield and Iraq's wish to be exempted from OPEC production cuts.

Brent LCOc1 was down 9 cents at $51.37 a barrel, while U.S. crude CLc1 also lost 2 cents to $50.50.

But going the other way were metals with zinc shining and Chinese iron ore futures reaching their highest since August 2014.

Coal prices also reached new peaks after weeks of gains, a prop for the Australian dollar AUD=D4as the two commodities are the country's biggest export earners.

Another mover was the Canadian dollar which rebounded from a seven-month low after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the decision on whether to cut interest rates again was not one to take lightly.

The comments countered recent speculation about an imminent easing and nudged the U.S. dollar down to C$1.3333 CAD=D4 from a peak at C$1.3398.

(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

BBC News - Ceta talks: EU hopes to unblock Canada trade deal

The European Parliament president says he is optimistic that a free-trade deal between the EU and Canada can be signed soon despite last-minute obstacles.

Objections by a Belgian region, which opposes the deal, "are for us Europeans to solve", Martin Schulz said.

He was speaking after meetings in Brussels with Canadian Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland and the head of Belgium's Wallonia region.

Ms Freeland said: "It's time for Europe to finish doing its job."

After seven years of negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta), talks broke down on Friday.

Ceta dispute bedevils EU summit

This followed a rejection of the deal by Wallonia. Exercising its right under the Belgian federal constitution, it called for clarity on safeguards to protect labour, environmental and consumer standards.

The deadlock has called into question the EU's ability to make trade deals. All 28 EU member states support the agreement, which was to be signed next week.

On Saturday Mr Schulz held meetings with Paul Magnette, the head of the Walloon government, and Mrs Freeland.

Afterwards he told reporters that the emergency talks have given him "much reason for optimism about the positive conclusion of Ceta as soon as possible."

He added: "I am convinced that, by fully addressing the last remaining concerns, we can turn the apparent European division on Ceta (...) into a victory for every participant."

"The ball is in Europe's court," Ms Freeland said. "We hope that it is possible to find a solution."

What is Ceta?

Canada and the EU would eliminate 98% of tariffs under Ceta, which was negotiated over five years between 2009 and 2014.

Supporters say this would increase trade between them by 20%.

Critics argue that the deal lowers product standards and protects big business, allowing corporations to sue governments.

Why does success hinge on one small region?

Wallonia is a region of just 3.6 million people. The EU as a whole has a population of 508 million while there are 36.3 million Canadians.

Belgium's constitution stipulates that each of its regional governments must back the deal before the federal government can sign it.

Wallonia has remained opposed to Ceta, seeing it as a threat to farmers and welfare standards.

The French-speaking region has a strong socialist tradition. Its fears echo those of anti-globalisation activists, who say Ceta and deals like it give too much power to multinationals.

There have also been big demonstrations in several EU countries against Ceta and the TTIP trade talks between the EU and the US.

How big a deal is this for Canada?

The deal was finalised under the former Conservative government but is a major priority for the Liberals, who are under pressure to boost the country's economy, the BBC's Canada editor Jessica Murphy writes.

They dispatched special envoy Pierre Pettigrew, a former cabinet minister with a wealth of experience in international trade, to help save the flagging agreement.

Federal Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland has repeatedly met European leaders in recent months to shepherd it through.

On Friday, she said agreement now seemed "impossible".

How does the EU look now?

The failure to clinch the EU-Canada Ceta deal is an embarrassment, writes Laurence Peter, the BBC website's EU analyst.

The European Commission insists Ceta is not over but it also refuses to unpick the massive text.

Chances of any EU free trade deals with the US, China or India now look remote. Anti-globalisation groups, anxious to protect Europe's welfare and environmental standards, may feel they are winning the argument.

For now, any Ceta boost for small businesses and jobs has been postponed.

Are there lessons for Brexit?

A very obvious one is that it is going to be difficult for the EU to implement trade and investment deals, perhaps with anyone, writes Andrew Walker, the BBC's economics correspondent.

For the UK post-Brexit, it suggests two contrasting implications:

• Negotiating a trade agreement that gives British exporters barrier free access to the EU's single market could be a huge challenge. For sure, there will be some important differences. For the EU, Britain is a more important export market than Canada, so some EU states will have a good deal to lose from failing to agree. But securing the agreement of all of them is unlikely to be straightforward

• On the other hand, negotiating an agreement with other countries outside the EU should become easier. To put it bluntly, the British government will not need to care what the Walloon parliament, for example, thinks

Reuters News - Dollar hits seven-month high, global stocks set for weekly rise

Traders react while working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 15, 2016.REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Alistair Smout | LONDON

Global stocks were set for their first weekly gain in four weeks on Friday and the dollar rose to its highest since March, as the euro came under pressure after the European Central Bank shot down talk of tapering its easy money stance.

The euro hit its lowest against the dollar since March after the ECB left its ultra-loose policy unchanged on Thursday but kept the door open to more stimulus in December.

ECB President Mario Draghi also doused recent market speculation that the central bank had discussed winding down its 1.7 trillion euro asset-buying programme.

"Weaning markets off easy monetary policy will be a delicate exercise for the ECB, and we think the bank is unlikely to remove its stimulus until inflation is solidly on track to 2 percent," Andrew Bosomworth, managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO, said in a note.

"We thus view tapering as a topic for 2017 and beyond."

The dollar index touched 98.606, its highest since early March, while the euro was down 0.4 percent at $1.0887 after seeing a seven-month trough of $1.0875.

The dollar was down 0.2 percent at 103.73 yen after rising 0.5 percent in the previous session.

The dollar index was set for its third straight week of gains, driven by hardening expectations of a rise in U.S. interest rates in December.

China's offshore yuan fell to its lowest level in six years against the broadly stronger dollar.

After three weeks of falls, world stocks were set to end the week higher for the first time since September.

The dovish stance taken by the ECB helped underpin appetite for European stocks, with the STOXX Europe 600 rising 0.1 percent.

Equities have also been boosted by a good start to earnings season, with expectation-beating results from U.S. banks the highlights so far. On Friday, Norway's Yara International and France's Valeo were the latest to beat expectations.

WEAK OUTLOOKS

However, companies such as Daimler have posted solid results but weak outlooks, and some said that the market's recent run was unsustainable.

"This week held several positives for markets. The Q3 earnings season so far managed to surprise rather strong market expectations and solidified anticipations that the earnings recession has ended after four quarters," said Susan Joho, economist at Julius Baer.

"As good as these developments may look at first sight, none of them are robust enough to be sustained in the next months. The reality looks more sober: corporate guidance is weak."

European equities posted a record 37th week straight of outflows, according to Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, and Europe Inc's third-quarter earnings are expected to see a double-digit decline, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S/ data shows.

Sterling slipped 0.1 percent to $1.2236, taking in its stride comments by European Council President Donald Tusk that British Prime Minister Theresa May had confirmed that Brexit talks would be triggered by end-March 2017.

Weakness in the euro saw it slip to its lowest level versus the pound since a "flash crash" in sterling on October 7.

Portugal's government bond yields held just above six-week lows on Friday, with analysts expecting Lisbon to survive a crucial ratings review and keep its place in the European Central Bank's asset purchase scheme.

Oil edged higher as Russia reiterated its commitment to joining a producers' output freeze to stem a two-year slide in prices, turning higher after a strong dollar had knocked back prices overnight. Brent crude was last up 0.5 percent

A stronger greenback tends to increase the purchase cost for non-U.S. buyers of commodities such as crude oil and gold, which are denominated in dollars. Weakness in oil prices overnight contributed to falls in Asian equities.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed down 0.4 percent.

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,263.91 an ounce, although it was on track for a 1 percent gain on the week.

(Reporting by Alistair Smout; Editing by Toby Chopra)

BBC News - Inflation means inflation, but who wins?

Sooner or later, the downward pressure on the pound since the UK's vote to leave the European Union is expected to lead to upward pressure on the prices of most things we buy.

Image copyright

Image captionTesco's recent spat with Unilever has highlighted fears of a new inflationary surge

Brexit, as we have been told by the prime minister, means Brexit. But inflation also means inflation.

The pound has repeatedly lurched lower in value since the outcome of the June referendum and is now the world's worst performing currency of 2016. Against the dollar, it is now worth 20% less than it was before the vote, and that fall is unlikely to be reversed in a hurry.

The basic laws of economics dictate that this will translate into higher inflation: foreign firms exporting goods to the UK will continue to charge the same amount for them in euros, dollars or whatever, but they will cost more in sterling when the prices are converted.

UK inflation rises to 1% in September

That goes for finished goods, such as food and drink or clothing, but also for raw materials that are processed here, such as car parts. Global supply chains mean that more than 50% of the components in cars "made in the UK" are actually sourced from overseas.

Petrol, too, is likely to go up in price, because oil is priced in dollars.

So higher rates of inflation are a foregone conclusion. The question is, how much higher? What will the consequences be? And will anyone gain from this, or are we all set to lose out?

Lessons of history

One estimate of the extent of possible price rises has come from the former boss of Northern Foods, Lord Haskins, who told the BBC that he expected to see food price increases running at an annual rate of 5% by this time next year.

He was speaking in response to supermarket chain Tesco's recent spat with Unilever, which was trying to pass on its higher costs incurred because of sterling's weakness - though that dispute has since been resolved.

The cost of food is an important factor in calculating the overall inflation rate, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which is published on a monthly basis by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Some economists are predicting that the CPI could hit 3% by the end of 2017.

If overall inflation did climb to the level predicted by Lord Haskins, it could be nudging close to the highest rate in a decade. In recent years, there have been two peaks in CPI inflation, in September 2008 and September 2011. In both those months, it reached 5.2%.

By historical standards, however, that pales in comparison with the levels reached in the 1970s, when the UK experienced several years of double-digit inflation. The worst year was 1975, during which prices went up by an eye-watering 24.2%.

We are unlikely to return to those days. But of course, back then, the industrial climate was different, trade unions were stronger and large groups of workers were able to obtain pay rises to match, despite government attempts to impose wage restraint.

Nowadays, substantial pay rises are harder to come by, so a lower level of inflation can have a bigger effect on living standards.

Interest rates

If we have to spend more money on goods while our salaries fail to keep pace with rising prices, then we are all likely to suffer to some degree.

It will certainly make Bank of England governor Mark Carney's job harder, because the Bank has a 2% inflation target.

If it goes above that, it increases the likelihood that he will raise interest rates to combat it, thus making life harder for those who owe money, such as on mortgages.

If you have a student loan, the level of interest charged is linked to a slightly different measure of inflation, the Retail Prices Index (RPI), and is not subject to the Bank of England's decisions.

A prolonged period of inflation would reduce the value of people's debts, making them easier to pay off.

If inflation were to stay at that 5.2% level for 12 years, your debt would, in effect, be worth only half as much in real terms, because you would still owe the same number of pounds, but each of those pounds would have declined in value.

The outcome is similarly mixed for pensioners. In their favour, state pensions are guaranteed by what is known as the "triple lock". In other words, they rise each year by the inflation rate, average earnings or 2.5%, whichever is the highest.

However, private pensions are not similarly protected. And to make matters worse, retired people are likely to spend a higher proportion of their income on food and fuel, which are particularly affected by the pound's big devaluation.

Pensioners are also more likely to be living off income from savings, and savers are clobbered by high inflation. Just as inflation erodes the value of debts, it also reduces the spending power of money kept in bank accounts, because prices go up and your money doesn't, especially with the ultra-low interest rates paid by banks at the moment.

So there is no unalloyed benefit from higher inflation for anyone. But some will feel more pain than others, while borrowers will certainly benefit more than savers.