BBC News - US fourth-quarter growth rate revised up

The US economy grew faster than initially estimated in the final months of 2016, the latest figures show.

The economy grew at an annualised pace of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of the year, the Commerce Department said, up from an earlier estimate of 1.9%.

Consumer spending, which accounts for around two-thirds of US economic activity, was stronger than initially thought, the report showed.

But the economy still slowed from third quarter growth of 3.5%.

And the revision did not alter the growth rate for the whole of 2016, which remained at 1.6% - the slowest since 2011.

'New normal'

The sluggish growth will make it more difficult for President Donald Trump to meet his pledge to lift GDP growth to 4%, through tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

The last time that America's economy grew at that rate was in 2000, the year of the dotcom boom, when it expanded by 4.1%.

"Many leading economists argue that current GDP expansion rates are the 'new normal' and therefore, today's figures should be seen as fairly robust," commented Dennis de Jong from UFX.com.

"Whether the President or the economic consensus is right remains to be seen, but in general the US economy appears to be in good shape, buoyed by strong consumer confidence and positive job figures over recent weeks."

Bloomberg News - Sweden Warned Not to Return to High-Tax 70s

Don’t return Sweden to the high taxes of the 1970s and 1980s.

That warning comes from Sweden’s state-funded economic think tank as the Social Democratic-led government has been raising taxes on workers, while planning to cut levies on pensioners and those collecting benefits.

“There are big negative effects, at least in the longer term, of higher state income tax and the marginal tax rate,” Urban Hansson Brusewitz, director-general at the National Institute of Economic Research, said in an interview Tuesday in Stockholm. “Should things head in this direction too long it would be harmful for Sweden.” 

Hansson Brusewitz joined NIER last year after working as budget chief at the finance ministry for seven years under both current Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson and her predecessor Anders Borg, who slashed taxes during eight years of the conservative Moderate Party’s stewardship. According to Hansson Brusewitz, the tax increases are a follow up on concern that the growing income inequality seen in recent years could harm the fabric of Swedish society.

Andersson leads a government with the Green Party, which has raised income taxes to fund more generous sick leave and unemployment benefits and spend more on jobs programs to cut unemployment. The government plans to have raised taxes by more than 40 billion kronor ($4.5 billion) by the end of 2018, after coming to power in late 2014, according to the Finance Ministry.

A large chunk of the increases is a reversal of the previous government’s payroll tax cuts for companies that hire young people. Hansson Brusewitz said that the decision to increase that tax was rather good since the reduction was ineffective.

Still, while boosting revenue for the state, it’s not clear that raising taxes on those earning the most will have the same effect in the long-term, according to the NIER chief. He also advised the government against repeating this year’s mistake of opening up its purse strings too much. 

The government recently flagged that solid finances will be an opportunity to boost welfare spending. It expects the economy to expand 2.6 percent this year, after growing more than 3 percent in 2016 and topping out above 4 percent in 2015 amid a record inflow of refugees.

While Brusewitz Hansson credits the government in having returned state coffers to a surplus, it should now stick to keeping budgets balanced to return to a structural surplus target that NIER argues should be 0.5 percent of gross domestic product.

“The budget for 2017 is somewhat expansive,” he said. “It hardly improves production and doesn’t to a large extent affect employment to conduct an expansive policy in a booming economy.”

The government doesn’t necessarily need raise taxes down the road to improve the quality of welfare services given expected productivity gains, he said.

The minority government’s tax plans have been met with skepticism both inside and outside parliament. The coalition was recently forced to change a proposal to raise dividend taxes for small businesses. NIER along with others have also been critical of the outlines of a proposed aviation tax, arguing that it wouldn’t decrease carbon-dioxide emissions in Europe.

Read more on growing tax increase opposition

The coalition recently also put on hold plans for a tax on the financial services industry. It proposed that banks will instead have to increase the amount they pay every year into a reserve that will be used to rescue lenders in a financial crisis.

The government should consider putting that money into a fund that is separate from the regular budget as is currently the case, Brusewitz Hansson said. 

It also needs to reconsider its goal of having the EU’s lowest unemployment by 2020.

“They won’t reach the target,” he said. “One should never say never but the likelihood is very, very low.”

BBC News - Qatar announces £5bn UK investment

One of the largest investors in the UK has committed £5bn of new money to invest in transport, property and digital technology.

The Middle Eastern state of Qatar said that it was optimistic about the future of the British economy.

It made it clear that the UK leaving the European Union had little bearing on its decision.

Qatar has already invested £40bn in the UK - it owns Harrods and a 95% stake in the Shard in London.

It also has a stake in Canary Wharf in the capital's Docklands, as well as an interest in the Milford Haven liquefied natural gas terminal in South Wales.

It also bought the Olympic Village following the London 2012 Olympics.

"Currently the UK is our first investment destination and it is the largest investment destination for Qatari investors, both public and private," Ali Shareef al Emadi, the country's finance minister, told the BBC.

"We have more than £35bn to £40bn of investments already in the UK.

"We're announcing an additional £5bn of investment in the next three to five years.

"Mainly this investment will focus on infrastructure sectors, technology, energy and real estate."

Mr Al Emadi will join International Trade Secretary Liam Fox in Birmingham on Tuesday where UK firms will showcase projects, including in sport, cyber-security and healthcare.

Image captionAli Shareef al Emadi, Qatar's finance minister

The government relies on foreign investment to support infrastructure projects such as the new high speed rail link between London, Birmingham and Manchester - HS2.

Although no final decisions have been taken on the Qatari investments, Mr Al Emadi did not rule out putting money into HS2.

"We will look at those deals; we will look at electricity, roads, bridges, railways," he said.

The announcement of the Qatari investment is likely to be welcomed by Number 10.

It comes two days before the triggering of Article 50, the official process for leaving the European Union.

Theresa May has made it clear she believes the British economy remains a positive place to invest and the Qatari announcement follows UK-focused investment decisions by Sir James Dyson, Google and Nissan.

'Confident'

The decline in the value of sterling has made UK assets more attractive to overseas investors - though many economists argue that leaving the EU will damage trade with Britain's largest market and therefore damage growth.

"We always like the UK market, it has always been a good market," Mr Al Emadi told me.

"The way we look at our investment in any market, and especially in the UK, it is a very long term investment, so we don't look at any cycles up or down

"So if you are talking about Brexit, I can go back to the financial crisis and tell you the same stories.

"We will do what we think is good for us, it is commercially viable, it has a good vision and a good impact."

I asked him whether the UK economy outside the EU was likely to be stronger or weaker.

"It is a lot to do with the policy the UK will take, but I think, knowing the UK market, I am very confident they will have a good future," Mr Al Emadi answered, saying that it was important that Britain was welcoming to high skilled foreign workers and students from Qatar and elsewhere.

Qatar has faced controversy over a fundraising for Barclays Bank at the time of the financial crisis and - more recently - allegations that poor labour conditions have marred the preparations for the 2022 World Cup which is being held in the country.

Mr Al Emadi said that Qatar had supported job creation in the UK.

"If you look at what we have done here, it has always been a win-win situation, whatever investment we do in the UK," he said.

"When you talk about labour in Qatar, I think a lot of these things have been taken out of proportion and [are] inaccurate news."

Bloomberg News - Rand Slumps as Zuma Shock a Reminder of Nation's Political Risk

South Africa’s rand erased its advance to become the worst performer in emerging markets after President Jacob Zuma’s order to abort an international roadshow served as a wake-up call to the country’s political risks.

The currency reversed gains of as much as 1 percent to trade 2.9 percent lower against the dollar after Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas, were instructed to pull out of meetings in London and the U.S. with investors and ratings companies, the presidency said in a statement Monday, without giving a reason.

The government’s rand-denominated bonds due 2026 fell, driving the yield 33 basis points higher to 8.7 percent, the biggest jump since August, when Gordhan refused to report to a special police unit to be questioned about alleged irregularities at the national tax agency.

“There are some conclusions now being drawn that there’s possibly an imminent cabinet reshuffle,” said Manisha Morar, an analyst at ETM Analytics in Johannesburg. “It puts into question our credit rating and the possibility of a downgrade coming sooner than later.”

Speculation that Gordhan is on the verge of being fired has swirled for months, as he clashed with Zuma over the management of state companies and the national tax agency. But those concerns were overshadowed by an emerging-market rally this year spurred by a decline in the U.S. dollar.

Before Monday, the rand had led gains by developing nations, advancing 11 percent against the dollar. It traded at 12.7883 per dollar as of 6:46 p.m. in London.

“The market was trading with very little political risk being priced in,” said Gordon Kerr, a trader at Johannesburg-based RMB. “We could see the rand consolidate at weaker levels after what has been a brilliant run. The shock of the news may impact the currency for a few days.”

While Gordhan will comply with the order, according to a person familiar with the situation, the roadshow is still going ahead, said Kevin Daly, a money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc.

BBC News - UK banks given new stress test scenarios

The UK's biggest banks have been told to prepare for a wide range of challenges, as part of the Bank of England's latest stress tests.

One key test will be to prove they can manage any sudden slowdown in foreign interest in UK assets.

The banks will have to show they have sufficient resources in place to cope with any shocks.

The seven major lenders taking part are Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, RBS, Santander UK, Standard Chartered and Nationwide.

Last year, RBS had to bolster its finances by about £2bn after failing the last stress test.

'Vulnerability'

The vote by the UK last year to leave the EU triggered a sharp drop in the value of the pound.

Setting out the stress test scenarios, the Bank of England said: "As highlighted in recent financial stability reports, the United Kingdom's large current account deficit creates a vulnerability to a reduction in foreign investor appetite for UK assets and increases in funding costs for real-economy borrowers."

The background against which it wants banks to test themselves includes "a sudden increase in the rate of return investors demand for holding sterling assets [which would mean higher interest rates on government bonds] and an associated fall in sterling".

Under its annual cyclical scenario, banks must show they can cope with a recession in the global economy and in the UK, interest rates peaking at 4%, and with house prices falling by a third.

The Bank's key interest rates currently stands at 0.25%.

Lenders have also been set a biennial "exploratory" scenario, which assumes "severe and synchronised" stress to the UK and global economy.

This second scenario assumes weak global trade, UK interest rates being cut to 0%, and increasing competition for the major lenders from smaller, challenger banks.

BBC News - Robots to affect up to 30% of UK jobs, says PwC

Robotics and artificial intelligence could affect almost a third of UK jobs by the 2030s, according to a study.

However, the report from accountancy firm PwC also predicted that the nature of some occupations would change rather than disappear.

It added that automation could create more wealth and additional jobs elsewhere in the economy.

Jobs in manufacturing and retail were among the most at risk from the new technologies, the report said.

The study estimated that 30% of existing jobs in the UK were potentially at a high risk of automation, compared with 38% in the US, 35% in Germany and 21% in Japan.

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, told the BBC that "more manual, routine jobs" which "can effectively be programmed" were the most at risk.

"Jobs where you've got more of a human touch, like health and education," would be safer, he said.

Under threat

The use of robots in the workplace is rising with workers in some sectors already facing up to the potential challenges.

"You can already see on the railways that all these strikes are not unrelated to the move towards driverless trains," Mr Hawksworth said.

In the future, truck drivers might "job share" with a self-driving lorry, although even that might ultimately be under threat, he said.

"Ultimately, people are going to have to be more adaptable," he added.

The government should help by providing lower-skill workers with more training in the next 10 to 20 years, the report said.

However, it also concluded that gains in productivity from robots and Artificial Intelligence (AI) would boost the economy.

"In many ways automation is a good thing. It's going to boost productivity, a big problem for the UK recently, and increase incomes... which will increase demand for human jobs in other areas," Mr Hawksworth said.

The UK is near record-low levels of unemployment and so outsourcing more repetitive tasks to robots could free up people to do more valuable work, the report found.

Transportation and storage - 56% of jobs at high risk from automation

Manufacturing - 46%

Wholesale and retail trade - 44%

Administrative and support services - 37%

Financial and insurance - 32%

Professional, scientific and technical - 26%

Construction - 24%

Arts and entertainment - 22%

Agriculture, forestry and fishing - 19%

Human health and social work - 17%

Education - 9%

Source: PwC

Reuters News - U.S. new home sales hit seven-month high; jobless claims rise

A job seeker fills out an application at the King Soopers grocery store table at a job fair at the Denver Workforce Center in Denver, Colorado, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Rick Wilking

By Lucia Mutikani | WASHINGTON

New U.S. single-family home sales jumped to a seven-month high in February, suggesting the housing market recovery continued to gain momentum despite the challenges of high prices and tight inventories.

Other data on Thursday showed an unexpected increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week. Still, the labor market continues to tighten, which together with the strength in housing, should underpin economic growth.

The Commerce Department said new home sales increased 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 units last month, the highest level since July 2016. Sales have now recouped the sharp drop suffered in December.

Economists had forecast new home sales, which account for about 9.7 percent of the overall market, rising 0.7 percent to a rate of 565,000 units in February. Sales were up 12.8 percent compared to the same month last year, showing the housing market's resilience.

Last month's sales were likely partially buoyed by unseasonably warm weather. Although mortgage rates have risen and may go higher, most economists see a limited impact on housing because a tightening labor market is improving employment opportunities for young adults.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended March 18.

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market for 80 straight weeks. That is the longest stretch since 1970 when the labor market was smaller. The job market is currently near full employment.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose only 1,000 to 240,000 last week.

U.S. stocks were mostly flat as investors focused on whether the House of Representatives would pass a Republican-sponsored bill to begin dismantling Obamacare, which is seen as the first significant policy test for President Donald Trump.

Prices of U.S. Treasuries were trading lower while the dollar .DXY was stronger against a basket of currencies.

LABOR MARKET FIRMING

The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed employers for March's nonfarm payrolls report. The four-week average of claims fell 7,750 between the February and March survey weeks, suggesting another month of strong job gains.

Job growth has averaged 209,000 per month over the past three months and the unemployment rate is at 4.7 percent, close to the nine-year low of 4.6 percent hit last November. Tightening labor market conditions and rising inflation enabled the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates last week.

The market for new houses is benefiting from a shortage of properties for sale. A report on Wednesday showed a 3.7 percent drop in sales of existing homes in February amid tight inventories and rising house prices. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently around 4.30 percent.

Last month, new single-family homes sales surged 30.9 percent to their highest level since November 2007 in the Midwest and increased 3.6 percent in the South. They jumped 7.5 percent in the West but slumped 21.4 percent in the Northeast.

The inventory of new homes on the market increased 1.5 percent to 266,000 units last month, still less than half of what it was at its peak during the housing boom in 2006.

At February's sales pace it would take 5.4 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 5.6 months in January.

A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand. The median price for a new home fell 4.9 percent to $296,200 in February from a year ago.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

Bloomberg News - Asia Stocks Set to Follow U.S. Selloff; Bonds Gain

Asian equities futures pointed toward losses after U.S. stocks fell the most since Donald Trump’s election as reflation trades that bolstered the dollar and Treasury yields faltered.

Futures on benchmark gauges in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong indicated declines of at least 0.8 percent when trading begins. The S&P 500 Index sank more than 1 percent for the first time since Oct. 11, with the selloff deepening in the final 30 minutes of trading after Reuters reported North Korea would pursue an acceleration in its nuclear program. Treasury yields tumbled and the dollar slumped for a fifth straight day. Oil retreated and gold held gains.

Financial shares sank and volatility soared amid the biggest drop for U.S. stocks since the November election as concern grew that pro-growth policies won’t sail through Congress. Trump met with House Republicans Tuesday morning to rally support for the repeal of Obamacare as investors look for signs that his plans to cut corporate taxes and boost spending will move forward. House Republicans warned failure to pass a health-care bill on Thursday could imperil tax and spending reforms.

North Korea will seek to accelerate its nuclear and missile programs, including developing "preemptive first-strike capability" and an ICBM, Reuters reported, citing the nation’s deputy ambassador to the UN. For its part, the U.S. is exploring a new range of diplomatic, economic and security measures, Trump’s spokesman Sean Spicer said.

What’s coming up the rest of this week:

• There’s a steady lineup of U.S. Fed speakers this week, headlined by Janet Yellen on March 23, while central bank policy decisions are expected in New Zealand, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.
• Earnings are due in Asia Wednesday from companies including Tencent Holdings Ltd.
• The House of Representatives votes Thursday on the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.
• March PMI for France is due Friday, along with final fourth-quarter GDP figures.

Here are the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• Futures on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average were down 1.6 percent in Singapore, signaling a third day of losses for Japanese stocks. Contracts on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.8 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 dropped 0.5 percent.
• Futures on the Hang Seng Index were off 0.8 percent, while those for a measure of Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong were down 1 percent. China’s central bank injected hundreds of billions of yuan into the financial system after some smaller lenders failed to make debt payments in the interbank market, according to people familiar with the matter.
• The S&P 500 fell 1.2 percent, the biggest drop since Oct. 11. The index hadn’t fallen 1 percent in any session for 109 straight days. Banks sank 2.9 percent for the steepest slide since June 24, the day after the U.K. vote to leave the European Union. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5 percent.
• Currencies
  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped by 0.3 percent.
  • The euro was steady after jumping 0.7 percent on Tuesday, rising versus all of its G-10 peers except sterling. The British pound traded 1 percent higher on Tuesday after U.K. inflation accelerated more than forecast to break through the Bank of England’s target for the first time since 2013.
  • The yen was little changed at 111.78 per dollar, after six straight days of gains.
  Bonds
  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell four basis points to 2.42 percent. The rate is down 12 basis points in the past three sessions.
  • Australian 10-year yields dropped four basis points to 2.77 percent.
  Commodities
  • West Texas Intermediate oil held losses after dropping 1.8 percent to $48.24 a barrel on Tuesday.
  • Copper slumped 1.8 percent amid signs supplies are returning. Disruptions caused the metal to surge last month to the highest level since 2015. 
  • Gold was steady after five days of gains.

BBC News - UK inflation rate leaps to 2.3%

Rising fuel and food prices helped to push last month's inflation rate to the highest since September 2013.

Inflation as measured by the Office for National Statistics' Consumer Prices Index (CPI) jumped to 2.3% in February - up from 1.8% in January.

The increase has pushed the rate above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Food prices recorded their first annual increase for more than two-and-a-half years, standing 0.3% higher in February than a year earlier.

The Bank of England has said it expects inflation will peak at 2.8% next year, although some economists think the rate could rise above 3%.

Analysis: Jonty Bloom, business correspondent

"DON'T PANIC" are the words that will be written across the Bank of England's next inflation report, in large friendly letters. Well, maybe not, but the Bank's governor, Mark Carney, said pretty much the same when he was quizzed over today's jump in inflation. Actually, what he said was, "Look - single data point, you never overreact to a single data point," but then he is a central banker and not the author of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

It does, however, amount to much the same thing. The Bank of England is not going to be panicked into increasing interest rates to try to control price rises just because of one month's figures. But that doesn't mean they aren't important.

They show fuel and food prices are rising, a situation not helped by the fall in the value of the pound, which makes imports more expensive. Prices at the factory gate are also rising quickly, suggesting more inflation is on the way to the High Street. And at 2.3%, inflation is increasing at the same rate as average earnings, meaning the average pay rise is being totally eaten up by increasing prices, not likely to make any of us feel better off.

Kamal Ahmed: Is inflation all down to Brexit?

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The Brexit vote last June prompted a steep fall in the value of the pound, making imported goods more expensive.

Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the fall in the pound against the dollar had been pushing transport costs higher since last summer.

"Oil is priced in dollars, and sterling has fallen around 13%... since last June's referendum."

He said that transport costs accounted for more than a third of the inflation figure.

Consumer squeeze?

This month, the ONS has started to promote its preferred inflation statistic, CPIH, which includes a measure of housing costs and council tax. This was also measured as growing at a rate of 2.3% in February.

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation rose to 3.2% in February from 2.6% the month before.

At the last week's meeting of the Bank of England's interest rate setting committee, one member voted for interest rates to rise to curb the threat of inflation.

But despite inflation standing above the 2% target, some economists do not expect interest rates to rise any time soon.

Inflation is now running at the same rate as growth in wages, putting pressure on household income and spending.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at Markit, said: "It remains likely that policymakers will adopt an increasingly dovish tone in coming months, despite the rise in inflation, as the economy slows due to consumers being squeezed by low pay and rising prices."

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Analysis: Kevin Peachey, personal finance reporter

The latest inflation figures show that the squeeze on savers just got a little tighter.

Returns are creeping up - but only one of 793 openly available savings accounts matches or beats inflation, according to financial information service Moneyfacts.

That one requires savings to be locked in for some time.

The government's help for savers is a "market-leading" bond, available from NS&I from April. Even that three-year deal is now outstripped by inflation and the picture could worsen if the inflation rate keeps rising.

Wages had grown faster than prices for a while. For those who put some of that money aside, the reward may now not match the endeavour.

BBC News - Reality Check: Are taxes going up to 1986 levels?

The claim: Taxes could rise to their highest level as a proportion of national income since 1986-87 by 2019-20.

Reality Check verdict: The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts suggest taxes could actually reach that level as soon as 2017-18. That may not happen if changes are made in this week's Budget and it is only a forecast, so unexpected events could prevent it happening.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said in its Green Budget that tax is rising as a share of national income and by 2019-20 is due to reach its highest level since 1986-87.

It is important to stress that it is not saying taxes on all individuals or households are going up. The measure it is using is the government's total tax receipts (and the OBR's forecasts of those receipts) as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP), which is the total amount of goods and services produced by the economy.

We will examine which taxes have been rising later, but it is true that the total take is expected to rise in the next few years to levels unseen since the mid-1980s.

It is in the next financial year, 2017-18, that the OBR expects the big jump in receipts to 36.9% of GDP, which take it above the peaks of 2011-12. Indeed it appears to be that year and not 2019-20 that first takes receipts to 1986-87 levels.

But it does not mean that everybody is paying more tax.

There have been gradual falls in revenue from income tax, for example, as the amount people have to be earning to pay it has been increasing.

The government said in the Autumn Statement that the increases in the basic rate threshold in the last parliament had meant four million of the lowest-paid people were not paying it at all.

Revenue raised by selected taxes

As a percentage of GDP

In addition to the taxes included on this chart are fuel duty, which has fallen gradually as successive governments have frozen it, and VAT, which got a boost when the government raised it from 17.5% to 20% at the start of 2011, but has been pretty constant since.

The category of tax that has been rising strikingly and is mainly responsible for the increase next year is "other".

That includes the new dividend tax regime, the increased insurance premium tax and a higher rate of stamp duty land tax for second homes.

But all of the forecasts for the coming years are from the OBR and are based on how things stood at the time of the Autumn Statement.

All this could change in Wednesday's Budget.